Author: Ajay Ajith

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday flat at 22,582 and shot up. The market traded in a tight 80-point range from there. NIFTY ended the day at 22,648, up by 43 points or 0.19%.

U.S. markets closed in green. The European markets closed mixed.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading mixed.

The U.S. Futures is trading in green after Apple results.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in green at 22,879, up by 100 points.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-up opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,600, 22,510 and 22,350. We can expect resistances at 22,710, 22,780 and 22,900.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 964 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 1,352 crores.

INDIA VIX has increased 25% this week to 13.44.

GIFT NIFTY indicates an opening near the all-time high(ATH) for NIFTY. The index could break this zone since BANK NIFTY is also trading near the all-time.

Just remember that this rally is with the underperformance of stocks including HDFC and Kotak Bank. Auto, midcap and smallcap indices are among the ones at ATH.

There is a 270-point straddle being formed at 22,700. Do watch out if the OI here increases over the day today.

Titan and Britannia are coming out with their results today.

We will be entering fresh NIFTY trades and continuing our BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check them out on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,426 with a small gap-up and tried to move up. After the initial 1 hour of trading, the index consolidated for a long time. NIFTY ended the day at 22,402, up by 34 points or 0.15%.

U.S. markets closed flat The European markets also closed flat.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading mixed.

The U.S. Futures is trading flat.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in slight red at 22,354.

All the factors combined indicate a flat to gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,350, 22,280 and 22,200. We can expect resistances at 22,440, 22,510 and 22,600.

NIFTY has the highest call OI resistance at 22,500. There is a high put OI support at 22,300. PCR is at 0.98.

On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 2,511 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 3,809 crores.

INDIA VIX was flat at 10.27.

NIFTY continued to trade and get stuck around the 22,450 mark. Bank Nifty also respected the Open Interest levels for yesterday’s expiry.

Global markets are also moving sideways, just like us.

The OI levels at 22,300 and 22,500 for the monthly expiry today look important. For the last 2 days, NIFTY has moved in a very tight range.

The expectation is similar today, with 22,400 straddles having around a 100-point premium. Let us see how the market reacts to the 50-point gap-down.

If the index is moving within these ranges, there is nothing to worry about for today. Enjoy the monthly expiry trades, and trade with the levels!

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,447 with a gap-up and fell. The index then traded in a 65-point range until the day’s closing. NIFTY ended the day at 22,368, up by 32 points or 0.14%.

U.S. markets closed in the green. The European markets also closed in green.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the green.

The U.S. Futures is trading flat.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in green at 22,448.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-up opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,280, 22,200 and 22,000. We can expect resistances at 22,440, 22,510 and 22,600.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 47,800, 47,600 and 47,420. We can expect resistances at 48,080, 48,160 and 48,300.

NIFTY has a high call OI resistance at 22,400 and 22,500. There is a high put OI support at 22,300. PCR is at 1.

BANKNIFTY has a high call OI resistance at 48,000 and 48,500. There is a high put OI support at 48,000. PCR is at 0.89.

On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 3,004 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 2,918 crores.

INDIA VIX fell 20% to 10.19, the second-lowest closing in its history.

NIFTY has gotten stuck at a Fibonacci retracement level from its recent fall. It is facing good resistance around the 22,450 mark.

The bullishness in the market still exists. As the major results season in India is also done, it looks like a consolidation before a big move.

The crash in India VIX could indicate institutional players already planning for election results.

Now, it is the monthly expiry for BANKNIFTY today. When we are looking at the options data, it is showing heavy straddle buildup at the current price of 48,000. A combined premium of 300+ points is being seen.

This means that the index could absorb up to 48,000 ± 300 moves. But beyond that, it would be a big danger.

Do not be fooled into thinking that the VIX crash will immediately lower volatility. There is still a risk of volatility, especially for expiry traders.

Make sure that you watch out for BANKNIFTY and its levels today, even if you are trading in NIFTY! 

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,337 with a gap-up and fell. After taking support at 22,200, the index moved back up. A breakout was seen above the day-high after 3 PM, and NIFTY ended the day at 22,336, up by 189 points or 0.86%.

U.S. markets closed in the green. The European markets also closed in strong green.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the green.

The U.S. Futures is trading in green.

GIFT NIFTY is trading flat at 22,392.

All the factors combined indicate a flat opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,280, 22,200 and 22,000. We can expect resistances at 22,440, 22,510 and 22,600.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 47,800, 47,600 and 47,420. We can expect resistances at 48,080, 48,160 and 48,300.

FINNIFTY has supports at 21,270, 21,200 and 21,080. We can expect resistances at 21,380, 21,470 and 21,560.

NIFTY has a high call OI resistance at 22,600 and 22,500. There is a high put OI support at 22,300. PCR is at 1.06.

BANKNIFTY has a high call OI resistance at 48,000. There is a high put OI support at 47,500. PCR is at 1.01.

FINNIFTY has a high call OI resistance at 21,500. There is a high put OI support at 21,300. PCR is at 1.11.

On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 2,915 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 3,542 crores.

INDIA VIX fell to 12.70.

The market is stabilising after last week’s fall due to the Israel war and Mauritius Tax treaty news.

Ahead of the elections, we currently have the results season. Today our markets will react to the Reliance results.

There is still a high call OI interest at 48,000 in BANKNIFTY. This is despite yesterday’s 350-point rally in the index. This level in the morning will be important.

So the market moving up yesterday was mostly due to international market recovery. Now that GIFT NIFTY is indicating a flat opening, we will get to know the true direction of the market.

Exit poll data is being collected around the country. As more and more states go into voting, the market has a high chance of being volatile.

I think we are yet to see volatility from HDFC Bank. Watch out for that 1558 level breaking eventually.

For the FINNIFTY expiry, be careful of the last 30 minutes too. When market players are getting too aggressive, it would not be a bad idea for you to prioritise safety.

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 21,839 with a gap-down and took support. Overall, it was a short covering day in the market. A rally of more than 400 points was seen from the day-low. NIFTY ended the day at 22,147, up by 151 points or 0.69%.

U.S. markets closed mixed. The European markets closed mixed.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the green.

The U.S. Future is trading in green.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in green at 22,286.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-up opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,080, 22,000 and 21,900. We can expect resistances at 22,210, 22,280 and 22,440.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 47,400, 47,200 and 47,000. We can expect resistances at 47,800, 47,900 and 48,080.

On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 129 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 52 crores.

INDIA VIX increased to 13.45.

Friday was a proper short-covering rally in the Indian markets.

And with the Israel-Iran issue not escalating further, Asian markets are back in the green. GIFT NIFTY is also indicating a 170-point gap-up opening.

HDFC Bank results came out last day, and the U.S. ADRs show a 3% increase. Let us see how the stock reacts in the market today.

Reliance is also expected to release its Q4 results after market hours today.

There is high call OI interest at 48,000 in BANKNIFTY. Do watch out for this.

So things to watch out for today:

1. Reaction to HDFC Bank results
2. Gap-up indicated by GIFT NIFTY
3. Reliance results
4. FIIs becoming small net buyers on Friday

I will continue investing in tranches into the index, just like we discussed last day. 

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,365 with a good gap-down and crashed. After a further 100-point fall, support was taken and the index bounced back up to 22,440. But the second half saw a fresh fall, and NIFTY ended the day at 22,272, down by 247 points or 1.1%.

U.S. markets closed in the red. The European markets closed mixed.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the red.

The U.S. Futures is trading in green.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in red at 22,127.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,120, 22,000, and 22,860. We can expect resistances at 22,200, 22,280 and 22,350.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 47,600, 47,420 and 47,200. We can expect resistances at 47,800, 48,100 and 48,400.

FINNIFTY has supports at 21,080, 21,000 and 20,800. We can expect resistances at 21,150, 21,280 and 21,380.

NIFTY has the highest call OI resistance at 22,700 and 22,500. The highest put OI support is at 22,200.

BANKNIFTY has the high call OI resistance at 48,000. The highest put OI support is at 47,000.

FINNIFTY has one of the highest call OI resistances at 21,300. The highest put OI support is at 21,000.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 3,268 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 4,762 crores.

INDIA VIX jumped to 12.46.

With further escalation in the war, the global markets are looking at a fresh round of sell-off. GIFT NIFTY is indicating a 200 point gap down!

FMCG and IT indices are usually resilient in these times, and they are near 200-day EMA lines. Might be a better place to park your money if you are concerned about a further fall.

Interestingly, domestic institutions bought in heavily yesterday. We might see the same trend today.

So generally, I would say it is a good time for anyone who had felt sad they didn’t invest when NIFTY reached 22,700. You can start building positions in different tranches!

For today, do watch the first 15-minute candles, then combine the Open High Low level with current supports. Especially watch out for 21,000 support in FINNIFTY.

We are generally happier as VIX is higher, and no put options are sold. I hope you too only have bearish trades open!

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started Friday at 22,687 with a small gap-down and tried to move up. But at every rise, the market got sold off. The day ended with a 200+ point fall from the highs. NIFTY ended the day at 22,519, down by 234 points or 1.03%.

U.S. markets closed mixed. The European markets closed in the red.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the red.

The U.S. Futures are trading in green.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in red at 22,452.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,420, 22,360, and 22,280. We can expect resistances at 22,525, 22,580 and 22,650.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 48,400, 48,000 and 47,800. We can expect resistances at 48,600, 48,800 and 49,000.

NIFTY has the highest call OI resistance at 22,700. One of the highest put OI support is at 22,200.

Last week, Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 6,526 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 12,231 crores.

INDIA VIX stayed around 11.53.

NIFTY is indicating a good gap-down as global markets adjust to 2 problems: US CPI inflation data and Iran attacking Israel.

For perspective, the U.S. CPI rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected. Meanwhile, India’s retail inflation eased to a 10-month low of 4.85% in March.

The problem is that this indicates any hopes for rate cuts in June is gone now.

But let’s get back to today. After a couple of shorter trading weeks, NIFTY is back to full fledge this week.

When the market opens today, there will be some pressure from the news of the war and the negative U.S. market on Friday. But even GIFT NIFTY is indicating just a 120-point gap-down. 

TCS revenues are also looking better than expected. The earnings season is getting started!

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and entering fresh BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,385 with a gap-down and fell. Support was found nearby and the index bounced back 170 points to get near the all-time high zone again. NIFTY ended the day at 22,434, down by 18 points or 0.08%.

U.S. markets closed mixed. The European markets closed in green.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the green.

The U.S. Futures is trading in green.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in green at 22,600.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-up opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 22,420, 22,360, and 22,280. We can expect resistances at 22,525, 22,580 and 22,650.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 47,600, 47,420 and 47,200. We can expect resistances at 47,700, 47,800 and 48,000.

NIFTY has the highest call OI resistance at 22,500. One of the highest put OI support is at 22,400 and 22,300.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 2,213 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 1,102.41 crores.

INDIA VIX fell to 11.37.

NIFTY is indicating a strong gap-up near the all-time high levels once again.

The U.S. markets are also comfortably trading near their all-time highs.

Due to the model code of conduct, big government actions – including rate cuts from RBI are not expected in the next 2 months. So this week’s major event, which is the speech by the RBI Governor tomorrow at 10 AM, would not impact the market much.

When the market opens today, there will be some pressure from the heavy call option sellers at 22,500. But with good premiums in the straddle, there might not be immediate short covering from this level. You can watch out for 22,560 as a good level.

The midcap index is hitting a fresh all-time high after its correction in March. Back in full strength.

As April is beginning, watch out for results from IT stocks. Q4 results of TCS will come out on April 12.

Keep an eye out for Shriram Finance, the latest addition to NIFTY. And SBI which could give a good bounce.

We will be continuing our NIFTY trades and entering fresh BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,020 with a gap-up and consolidated. Mostly, there were sideways moves with a trading range of 130 points. NIFTY ended the day at 22,011, up by 172 points or 0.79%.

U.S. markets closed in the green. The European markets closed in green.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the red.

The U.S. Futures is trading flat.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in red at 22,057.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 21,980, 21,920, 21,800 and 21,680. We can expect resistances at 22,090, 22,200 and 22,300.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 46,470, 46,240 and 46,000. We can expect resistances at 46,700, 46,980, 47,200 and 47,420.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 1,826 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 3,208 crores.

INDIA VIX crashed to 12.51.

After the fall on Tuesday, Wednesday – yesterday was the recovery day. At one point, NIFTY was up 250 points from the previous close.

But this was mostly contributed by the gap-up opening. Fed Reserve giving indication that there could be multiple rate cuts this year was the reason for positivity.

But the question is if it will be another dead cat bounce. Even today for the last day of the week, NIFTY will be opening with a gap-down at around 21,950.

Accenture from the U.S. has cut its guidance for the year, giving a negative indication to Indian IT services companies including Infy and TCS. There could be a negative opening.

India VIX has fallen below early January levels. It is also below a 200-day EMA trend. It is an indication of consolidation in the market before the elections. A jump back above 14 ranges would be nice!

Let’s see if 21,900 is held again today. The Bank NIFTY level to be watched out for is 46,240.

We will be continuing our NIFTY and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday at 22,006 flat and consolidated. Last week’s low was once again respected, and the index gave a breakout at noon till Friday’s high. NIFTY ended the day at 22,055, up by 32 points or 0.15%.

U.S. markets closed in the green. The European markets closed flat.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the red.

The U.S. Futures are trading in red.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in red at 22,064.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 21,980, 21,920, 21,800 and 21,680. We can expect resistances at 22,090, 22,200 and 22,300.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 46,470, 46,240 and 46,000. We can expect resistances at 46,700, 46,980, 47,200 and 47,420.

In NIFTY, there is high call OI resistance at 22,200 and high put OI support at 22,000. PCR is at 0.77.

In BANKNIFTY, there is high call OI resistance at 47,000 and high put OI support at 46,000. PCR is at 0.76.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs -2,051 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 2,261 crores.

INDIA VIX is flat at 13.89.

NIFTY continues consolidation, with the base taken at 21,920 for the 4th consecutive trading day.

Our market and the U.S. seem to be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday night. 

So, the range to watch out for continues to be 21,920-22,200 in NIFTY.

FINNIFTY has a wider range because of how volatile it was yesterday. You can watch out between 20,450-20,700 for the index, which are yesterday’s high and low.

Tata Sons is selling shares of TCS in the open market for up to ₹8,800 crores, so be aware of a possible fall in the stock. 

Along with this, NIFTY is indicating a gap-down opening near the 21,900 range again. It will be the 5th day that the level is being tested.

We will be continuing our NIFTY and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday Friday at 22,074 with a gap-down. It kept moving until the week’s low of 21,920 but formed a base and bounced back. NIFTY ended the day at 22,023, down by 123 points or 0.56%.

U.S. markets closed in the red. The European markets closed mixed.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading mixed. Japan is up 2% ahead of its interest rate decision.

The U.S. Futures are trading flat.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in slight red at 22,070.

All the factors combined indicate a flat to gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 21,980, 21,920, 21,800 and 21,680. We can expect resistances at 22,090, 22,200 and 22,300.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 46,470, 46,240 and 46,000. We can expect resistances at 46,700, 46,980, 47,200 and 47,420.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 848 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs -682 crores.

INDIA VIX is flat at 13.69.

When the market opens today, it is opening to a different world. A world where election dates have been announced.

While most people thought that this process would be done by May, the day of counting is now set as June 4. Speculators in June would now start being more active.

Last Friday, NIFTY traded in the expected range. A breakdown below 21,920 was not seen. Even today, the range to watch out for would be 21,920-22,200.

On Wednesday, the interest rate decision from the FOMC meeting of the U.S. is expected to shake up the market. Since it will be Wednesday overnight, NIFTY options will be volatile.

The larger levels to watch out for BANKNIFTY would be 46,000-47,000. Options data indicates the same.

The mutual funds’ stress test data that SEBI requested does not look too positive. It basically showed that major smallcap funds would take a longtime to liquidate their portfolios in case of withdrawals. We may see a fresh round of corrections and regulations in the smallcap and midcap space.

We will be continuing our NIFTY and BANKNIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!

What Happened Yesterday?

NIFTY started yesterday flat at 21,986. It took support at Wednesday’s low and moved back up. Till noon there was good positivity and the market took resistance at 22,200. NIFTY ended the day at 22,146, up by 149 points or 0.68%.

U.S. markets closed in the red. The European markets closed mixed.

What to Expect Today?

Asian markets are trading in the red.

The U.S. Futures are trading flat.

GIFT NIFTY is trading in red at 22,158.

All the factors combined indicate a gap-down opening in the market.

NIFTY has supports at 21,980, 21,920, 21,800 and 21,680. We can expect resistances at 22,090, 22,200 and 22,300.

BANKNIFTY has supports at 46,700, 46,470 and 46,240. We can expect resistances at 46,980, 47,200 and 47,420.

Foreign Institutional Investors net–sold shares worth Rs 1,356.29 crores. Domestic Institutional Investors net–bought shares worth Rs 139 crores.

INDIA VIX dropped to 13.63.

The market gave a dead cat bounce yesterday, as it rallied up to the 22,200 mark. Mostly aggressive call option sellers in NIFTY had to square off their positions.

But like most other weeks, where Friday is where we see the true movement, today is expected to give a good correction.

The opening level will be around 22k, and yesterday’s low will first be tested. The trading range of 21,900-22,200 will be super important to judge the next direction.

Electoral bonds data has come out. Not expecting that to trigger the general market, can have a watch out for Airtel, DLF and Vedanta.

As the year ends, any dead cat bounce like yesterday’s would be an essential time for tax loss harvesting. Stocks can be bought back the next day if you want to.

Rs 2/litre petrol price reduction could affect oil marketing company stocks. Purely an election play, but should have been a long time ago.

Watching the levels on NIFTY which I said above. And 46,460 support in BANKNIFTY.

We will be continuing our BANKNIFTY trades, and entering fresh NIFTY trades today. You can check out our trades on the marketfeed app or our website!

All the best for the day!