Tag: dalal street

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the truncated week with a minor gap-up at 17,428 on Monday. The index took support above 17,300 and rallied. Tuesday was a holiday on account of Mahavir Jayanti. The market continued the rally on Wednesday. Expiry day fell on the RBI interest rate decision day. There was a surprise decision not to hike the rate and the index spiked up. NIFTY consolidated at the top around 17,620 for the rest of the day. Friday was a holiday on account of Good Friday. NIFTY ended the week at 17,599, up by 239 points or 1.38%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 40,720 and continued the rally we saw on Friday. The zone above 40,500 provided support to the banks. The index continued the up-move and broke 41K. Though there was an up-move on the RBI decision news, the BNF faced resistance at around 41,250 and closed at 41,041, up by 432 points or 1.06%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat 18,107, took support at Friday’s close and rallied. Expiry fell on Monday as Tuesday was a holiday. There was a huge rally and the index took resistance around 18,500 on the RBI rate decision day. HDFC helped the index outperform BANK NIFTY. It was a good week for the HDFC twins. FIN NIFTY ended the week at 18,462, up by 403 points or 2.23%.

IT moved up by 0.23%. 

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1,600 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 2,200 crores.

Looking at the global markets, the US markets had a mixed week with blue chip companies of Dow Jones advancing and the IT stocks dragging the major indices. Nasdaq closed 1% lower whereas Dow could end the week in 0.6% green. The small-cap stocks faced a hit.

DAX closed flat to red whereas FTSE closed 1.44% higher. We saw an opposite intraday movement in DAX and FTSE on Wednesday. The Asian markets had a mixed week. Note that Nikkei ended the week 1.9% lower.

The RBI interest rate decision was the highlight of the week. The interest rate was not hiked and it was a surprise to the market participants who were expecting a 25 basis points hike. 

RBI also revised the growth to 6.5% from 6.4% for the current fiscal. Inflation was projected at 5.2%.

India’s Manufacturing PMI came out at a 3-month high of 56.4. The Auto Sales data was good as it is the festive season here. 

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI came out better than estimates at 44.7. British data came out in line with expectations at 47.9. US Manufacturing activity dropped heavily last month. 

OPEC+ gave a surprising cut in production and it was condemned by the US. This led to a spike in crude oil prices. The prices are up by 6% WoW.

CEO of JP Morgan said that the banking crisis is not over and we may see a recession phase like ‘2008’.

SGX Nifty is at 17,725.

INDIA VIX dropped by another 8% to 11.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,550, 17,520, 17,480 and  17,425. We can expect resistances at 17,610, 17,640 and 17,750.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 40,950, 40,800 and 40,600.  Resistances are at 41,100, 41,210 and 41,560.

FINNIFTY has supports at 18,340, 18,300 and 18,200. Resistances are at 18,510, 18,680 and 18,740.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,600. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 41,200. The highest put OI build-up is at 41,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,300. This excludes the far OTM strikes in Fin Nifty.

The weekly candle is another green candle as a follow-up to the strong green candle we had the previous week. If you look at the weekly chart, the index is at a resistance, the close of February last week. The day-chart offers a good resistance level at 17,750. This level has to be crossed for the bulls to gain strength.

FIIs continued their buying streak though DIIs turned net sellers. FII inflow will be good for our market to stay around this zone or perhaps break 17,750 to attempt a mid-term reversal in the trend.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY
Europe holiday on account of Easter

TUESDAY
_

WEDNESDAY
India CPI

US CPI

Fed Minutes

India Industrial production
Manufacturing Output

TCS Result

THURSDAY
UK GDP

Germany CPI

US PPI

Infosys Result

FRIDAY

India holiday: Ambedkar Jayanti

India WPI

US Retail Sales and Manufacturing Production

SATURDAY
HDFC Bank Result

The market will remain shut on Friday on account of Ambedkar Jayanti. 

The quarterly settlement might have taken place for your trading account. Do not worry if you see zero funds in the account. You can add back and continue trading.

The corporate results season will be kicked off this week. TCS, Infosys and HDFC Bank will announce their results this week. 

Consumer Price Inflation is expected to come in the tolerance zone itself, at around 5.7% YoY. On the same day, we have US CPI and Fed minutes. It was a 25 bps hike in the last meeting. Will there be a pause in the next meeting? 

If there is a pause, we can expect the FII inflow to continue. The US dollar index fell from 105 to 102 last month.

As mentioned above, the crude oil prices are above $85 now after the surprise cut. This is not good for the Indian market.

The Indian government reviewed the Covid situation and asked the states to identify the hotspots and increase testing. 

Looking at the chart, bears are sitting at the zone around 17,640, the day-high of Thursday. I will give more importance to a cay candle closing above 17,750.

I will watch 17,500 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,750 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 16,984 on Monday and had a consolidating day with volatile moves towards the end. There was a gap-up opening the next day and the index slid down. Wednesday was Nifty expiry as Thursday was a holiday on account of Ram Navami. There was a big short covering towards the close. Nifty opened with a huge gap-up on Friday and rallied continuously to close the week at 17,360, up by 415 points or 2.45%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 39,501 and closed slightly lower. The index consolidated on Tuesday as well. There was an up-move on Wednesday and BNF rallied after a big gap-up on Friday to close at 40,609, up by 1213 points or 3.08%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat at 17,670 on Monday. The index moved down to 17,550 and moved up after consolidation. FIN NIFTY rallied heavily with other sectors and closed at 18,059, up by 435 points or 2.47%.

IT moved up by 2.73%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 5,000 crores.

The global markets saw a heavy rally last week. Dow Jones is very near the swing point of 33,500. Once that is broken with strength, it is a sign of reversal. 

Germany’s inflation came out lower this time. But food prices are rising. CPI dropped from 7.8% to 7.3%.

US GDP data came out lower. But the figure is not that weak. 

Jeremy Siegel, an economic expert said that the GDP projection by Fed is a sign of an imminent downturn. 

The weekly candle is a strong green candle. Nifty had broken the important support of 17,094, the swing low of September. The weekly candle is bullish because of the strong day-candle formed on Friday. It was a huge gap-up and continuous rally on Friday. Let us see if the up-move can continue. 

SGX Nifty is at 17,480.

INDIA VIX dropped to 12.9.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,285, 17,245, 17,200 and 17,160. We can expect resistances at 17,390, 17,425, 17,455 and 17,590.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 40,450, 40,180 and 40,000. Resistances are at 40,700, 40,800 and 41,000.

FINNIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,925 and 17,860. Resistances are at 18,100, 18,225 and 18,470.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,700. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 40,500. The highest put OI build-up also is at 40,500.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,200. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,850.

FIIs and DIIs both turned net buyers last week. This was the highlight of the last week. The coming week will see the RBI interest rate decision. We can expect a 25 basis points hike.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY
China Holiday on account of Ching Ming Festival

Germany Manufacturing PMI

British Manufacturing PMI
US Manufacturing PMI

TUESDAY
India holiday

China holiday

WEDNESDAY
China and Hong Kong holiday

THURSDAY
RBI Interest rate decision

FRIDAY

Global Markets holiday

As you can see, it is going to be a short week as the markets will be off on Tuesday on account of Mahavir Jayanti and Friday as it is Good Friday.

I will watch 17,200 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,455 can be watched on the upside.

It is a new Financial Year! Wishing you a great year of trading with discipline and management ahead!

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-down at 17,044 on Monday. The index took support at 16,830 and gave a rally. Resistance was taken at the previous Wednesday’s high. There was a down-move on Thursday that continued on Friday. NIFTY closed at 16,945, down by 155 points or 0.91%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 39,411, took support at 39,000 and rallied. The index crossed 40K but saw a sell-off on Thursday. BNF closed at 39,395, down by 203 points or 0.51%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 17,622 and moved down to 17,400. There was a 500+ points rally and the index almost touched 18K. The subsequent 400 points fall led FIN NIFTY to close at 17,623, down by 48 points or 0.27%.

IT moved down by 3.18% last week.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 7,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 9,000 crores.

The global markets ended the week in the green. The US markets had seen some up-move initially but there was a fall towards the close on Thursday. 

The highlight of the week was Fed’s decision to hike the interest rate. There was a 25 bps hike. UK CPI came out higher than expected. 

The government hiked the STT on futures and options and this was a surprise to the traders. It was a 25% hike from 0.05% to 0.062%.

The weekly candle has shadows on either side. Anyway, it is bearish and the market has broken the long-term support of 17,094, the swing low formed in September.

SGX Nifty is at 17,038.

INDIA VIX is at 15.24.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 16,900, 16,830 and 16,750. We can expect resistances at 16,970, 17,090, 17,160 and 17,207.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 39,160, 39,000 and 38,600. Resistances are at 39,600, 39,730 and 40,000.

FINNIFTY has supports at 17,550, 17,500 and 17,425. Resistances are at 17,690,17,770 and 17,860.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,100. The highest put OI build-up is at 16,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 40,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 39,500. 

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

_

TUESDAY

_

WEDNESDAY

_

THURSDAY

Ram Navami Holiday

Germany CPI

US GDP

FRIDAY

UK GDP

India Infrastructure Output

Stay updated on news regarding the Banking crisis. The current status is that the US government has assured safety to all investors. Credit Default Swaps saw a jump in the last few days. The US probe against UBS and Credit Suisse to find out if there was any help provided to Russia to evade financial sanctions has to be followed closely.

US GDP data will influence the positions in the market.

Now that the September support has been broken, the key is in the bears’ hands.

I will watch 16,900 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,210 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,428 and moved down. The down-move continued till Wednesday. Thursday was choppy. To talk about volatility, the last week was one of the most volatile weeks in recent days. Tuesday was extremely volatile. And Thursday’s expiry was no different. Friday saw a V-shaped recovery with the help of short covering. 17K was broken last week and support was taken at 16,850. NIFTY closed at 17,100, down by 313 points or 1.8%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 40,393 on Monday. The index even broke 38K last week. Support was taken at 38,600 on Thursday and the index started moving up. Friday saw a V-shaped recovery with fierce short covering and BNF closed at 39,598, down by 887 points or 2.19%.

FIN NIFTY opened 17,923 on Monday. There was a momentary up-move above 18K but the bears held the grip tight and FIN NIFTY moved down till 17,250 on Thursday. The index moved up on Friday and closed at 17,671, down by 256 points or 1.43%.

IT moved down by 2.34% last week.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 8,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors also net-bought shares worth Rs 9,000 crores.

The US markets managed to close the week in the green with the help of the IT stocks. Dow Jones closed flat to red. The European markets ended deep in the red. The Asian markets also moved down. 

Banking Crisis continued last week. However, there was an up-move in the banking stocks following a rescue package to First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse bank.

India’s CPI came out as expected at 6.4%. Wholesale Price Inflation came out much better than expected at 3.85%. 

The European Central Bank hiked the interest rate by 50 basis points. 

The weekly candle ended as a red candle but the close was above 17,094, the previous swing point. BNF also ended above the swing point. 

SGX Nifty is at 17,045.

INDIA VIX is at 14.77.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,080, 17,000, 16,970 and 16,875. We can expect resistances at 17,150, 17,210 and 17,390.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 39,220, 39,000 and 38,620. Resistances are at 40,000, 40,500 and 40,850.

FINNIFTY has supports at 17,500, 17,410 and 17,260. Resistances are at 17,750, 17,920 and 18,090.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,800. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 41,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 39,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

Germany PPI

TUESDAY

Nikkei Holiday

WEDNESDAY

UK CPI

US interest rate decision

THURSDAY

BOE MPC meeting minutes

FRIDAY

Euro CPI
US Manufacturing data

All eyes are on the Fed interest rate decision. Most of the experts are expecting a hike of 25 basis points. 

Bank Nifty is at an important trendline. The line connected the Covid Low and the recent swing-lows.

I will watch 17,000 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,210 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a huge gap-up at 17,684 on Monday. This was a follow-up to the huge recovery rally on Friday. The index moved down slowly for the remainder of the day. Tuesday was a holiday on account of Holi. Wednesday saw a small gap-down and a recovery move. It was a bleeding expiry day. There was a huge gap-down on Friday and the index consolidated there. The negativity was caused due to the fall in the Wall Street as a result of the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse.  NIFTY closed at 17,413, down by 181 points or 1.03%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 41,431 on Monday and took support at 41,100 and formed a double top at 41,650. The index took support at 41,100 again. There was a huge gap-down on Friday and the index closed at 40,485, down by 766 points or 1.86%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 18,342 and took resistance at 18,450. The index formed a double top there in the hourly chart and opened with a huge gap-down on Friday. This took the index below 18,000 and FIN NIFTY closed at 17,928, down by 337 points or 1.84%.

IT moved down by 0.91% last week.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1,700 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors also net-bought shares worth Rs 13,00 crores.

The last week was truncated by the Holi holidays.

The US markets fell heavily last week due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. The indices fell by more than 4%. The European markets are down by more than 1% and the Asian markets fell heavily.

We were discussing the possibility of a double-bottom recovery in NIFTY last week. But the structure looks weak now and the global cues are not favouring the bulls. 

Jerome Powell on Tuesday said that the economic data that were coming out recently were strong. And in this context, the FED will have to go for larger hikes and at a quicker pace than previously anticipated. This led to worries.

There are reports that Adani is planning to sell some stakes in Ambuja Cements.

SGX Nifty is at 17,342.

INDIA VIX is at 13.41.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,320, 17,300, 17,200, 17,010 and 16,980. We can expect resistances at 17,465, 17,590 and 17,650.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 40,370, 40,000 and 39,900. Resistances are at 40,600, 40,850 and 41,000.

FINNIFTY has supports at 17,860, 17,760 and 17,700. Resistances are at 17,950, 18,085 and 18,200.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,400.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 40,500. The highest put OI build-up also is at 40,500.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,900.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

India CPI

TUESDAY

India WPI

US CPI

WEDNESDAY

US PPI

THURSDAY

_

FRIDAY

Euro CPI
US Manufacturing data

Everyone is asking if the SVB crisis will be another 2008 Financial crisis. It is less likely that there is a long-term impact because the Silicon Valley Bank issue is more specific to start-up companies. 

The start-ups deposited their money and the bank bought bonds with it. As interest rate was hiked, bond returns went down and when the start-ups which did not get enough funding withdrew their deposits, the bank had to sell their bonds in losses. 

But this will certainly have an indirect impact on our markets as Wall Street is getting affected.

The economic data coming out this week will be important as Powell has said that the magnitude of the hike depends on the data.

The US inflation is likely to drop to 6.3%. India’s CPI is estimated at 6.35%.

I will watch 17,300 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,465 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,443 and took support at 17,300. Though there was a bounce towards the close on Monday, the index moved down to 17,260. Wednesday saw a gap-up and the up-move continued. NIFTY had a down-trending expiry day. The index opened with a gap-up of more than 150 points on Friday and rallied. The recovery was so big that the index closed almost at 17,600. NIFTY ended the week at 17,594, up by 129 points or 0.74%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 39,904 on Monday. The index outperformed last week. Monday’s close was above 40,300. Tuesday saw consolidation. The index moved up on Wednesday and closed just below 40,700. Expiry day saw a big fall that took the index to 40,300. BNF opened with a huge gap-up on Friday, rallied heavily, and closed at 41,251, up by 1,342 points or 3.36%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat at 17,854 and rallied to close above 18K on Monday. The expiry day saw consolidation but there was a sudden fall and a recovery. There was consolidation just below 18,100 on Wednesday. FINNIFTY fell on Thursday to 17,900. FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-up on Friday and had a big trending day to end the week at 18,265, up by 400 points or 2.24%.

IT moved down by 2.29% last week.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 6,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 13,000 crores.

The FII figure includes the Adani block deal. It was a 15,000 cr deal. So, if you omit it, FIIs were net sellers otherwise.

The US markets, European markets and Asian markets moved higher last week. Dow Jones closed 1.75% higher. Dow Jones has been range-bound for a while. The market is moving up from the support now.

It was a red candle in the weekly timeframe of NIFTY and no one thought that the index would be able to end the week in green after seeing the fall on Thursday and that too, in 0.7% green with a big 270 points move on the last day. Friday changed the structure entirely. 

NIFTY’s day candle close on Friday was at 200 ema and this is happening for the first time since 22nd February. This looks like a double-bottom recovery. However, there is a long way to go for our market.

India’s GDP growth rate came out at 4.4%. The expected figure was 4.7% by RBI. As there is a strong base, 4.7% would have looked good. The real figure came below the estimates but did not have an impact on the market.

February GST Collection came out at 1.5 lac cr.

Fed Official Bostic said that he favours smaller hikes contrary to what Bullard said the previous week.

SEBI approved NSE’s request to launch contracts for WTI Crude oil and Natural gas.

Adani stocks fired up last week after the block deal.

SGX Nifty is at 17,730.

INDIA VIX dropped by 14% to 12.18.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,540, 17,465, 17,425 and 17,300. We can expect resistances at 17,600, 17,645 and 17,770.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 41,170, 41,000, 40,850 and 40,600. Resistances are at 41,390, 41,560 and 41,750.

FINNIFTY has supports at 18,240, 18,115 and 18,025. Resistances are at 18,325, 18,380 and 18,515.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 42,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 41,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,000.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

_

TUESDAY

Holiday on account of Holi
Powell speech

WEDNESDAY

Germany Industrial Production and Retail Sales.

THURSDAY

China Inflation data

FRIDAY

India Industrial production

India Manufacturing Output
UK Construction Output
UK GDP
UK Industrial Output

FIN NIFTY expiry falls on Monday as Tuesday is a holiday on account of Holi celebrations. 

Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. He will also present the Half-year Monetary Policy Report.

Looking at the weekly chart, 17,945 is the next major level. The bulls need a strong close above the level to take the market to recovery mode. 

The structure of FIN NIFTY looks good for a recovery. 18,350 should be watched for expiry tomorrow.

NIFTY is at a major level. 17,600 acted as a strong resistance on Thursday. There was heavy consolidation on the expiry day. The level also has 200 ema now.

I will watch 17,425 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,770 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,966 on Monday. Bearishness was evident in the first two days but the fall came on Wednesday. The important level of 17,740, which was the support on 13th February was broken at the opening itself on Wednesday. 17,600  was broken and in a major blow to the bulls, the weekly close is below 17,600. NIFTY had another bearish day on Friday and the index closed at 17,466, down by 478 points or 2.67%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 41,176 on Monday. There was a down-move that ended at 41,665. The index consolidated in this zone on Tuesday. Wednesday saw major bearishness. The close on expiry day was at 40,000 helping the straddle players. However, BNF moved below 40K on Friday. The index ended the week at 39,909, down by 1222 points or 2.97%.

FIN NIFTY opened the week flat at 18,474. 18,250 offered support to the index on Monday and Tuesday. There was a huge fall on Wednesday and 18K was broken. Even 17,760 was reached on expiry day but there was immediate buying at that point. Bearishness continued on Friday and the index closed at 17,864, down by 570 points or 3.1%.

IT moved up by 1.7%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 3,000 crores last week. Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,000 crores.

The US markets closed 3% lower. There was bearishness in the price action last week. The European markets closed more than 1.5% down. There was less bearishness in the Asian markets.

The weekly chart of NIFTY is disappointing to the bulls as the close is below 17,600. That was a major swing point. The last week of January saw the close at 17,600 and breaking this level points at the continuation of the trend that started in December. The next major level is at 17,085.

The US PMI data was strong. This increased fears of hiking rates and this led to negativity. Fed Minutes had nothing surprising to the market. RBI Governor said that the global economic outlook data has improved since the MPC meeting in December.

SGX Nifty is at 17,542.

INDIA VIX increased to 14.2.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,420 and 17,310 and 17,100. We can expect resistances at 17,480, 17,540 and 17,600.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 39,850, 39,600 and 39,400. Resistances are at 40,000, 40,200 and 40,350.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 17,835, 17,760 and 17,700. We can expect resistances at 17,930, 18,000 and 18,080.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,600. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 40,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 40,000.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,800.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

_

TUESDAY

India GDP data

Infrastructure output

WEDNESDAY

Britain Manufacturing PMI

US PMI
Germany CPI

THURSDAY

ECB MPC statement

FRIDAY
_

Auto Sales data will be out this week. Regarding GDP data, we are expecting slower growth this time due to weaker manufacturing and exports figure. It is expected at 5% YoY. But I don’t think the GDP numbers will have an impact on the markets.

There are speeches by Fed officials this week. See if there is any deviation in their statements.

Note that the 50-week EMA is at 17,450. Budget low is 17,353.

So, we saw a breakout on the upside when the budget high was broken. That was a fake move and the index reversed. Let us see if the budget low will be broken. If that happens, it can be disastrous.

We have an IPO this week: Divgi TorqTransfer Systems on 1st March.

I will watch 17,310 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,600 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,861 on Monday and took support around 17,750. There was a rally on Tuesday that was extended on Wednesday, especially with a final-hour breakout that led to a close above 18K. The index opened with a huge gap-up on Friday and profit booking kicked in. NIFTY moved down on Friday as a continuation of the profit booking but took support at 17,900. NIFTY ended the week at 17,944, up by 88 points or 0.48%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 41,572 and took support at 41,250 on Monday. The index joined the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday but could not cross the major level of 41,800. There was profit booking on Thursday and Friday. 40,900 offered support and BNF closed at 41,132, down by 428 points or 1.03%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat at 18,508 on Monday. There was support taken at 18,340. Up-move took the index higher on Tuesday and Wednesday but 18,740 resisted the up-move on Thursday. There was profit booking and FIN NIFTY took support at around the support level of Monday on Friday and ended the week at 18,434, down by 82 points or 0.44%.

IT moved up by 0.6%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 4,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors also net-bought shares worth Rs 2,500 crores.

Looking at the global markets, the US markets closed mixed with DOW and S&P 500 ending the week with minor losses and NASDAQ closing in the green though at +0.6%. The European markets closed well in the green. However, the Asian markets mostly closed lower.

There is uncertainty if you watch the weekly chart. It is a green candle but it looks like a spinning top formed with rejection from the zone of 18,000-18,150 and that does not look good for the bulls. 

India’s Consumer Price Inflation came out unexpectedly higher at 6.5%. The estimate was higher than the previous month figure. But no one was expecting a figure above 6.5%. The base effect is one reason. Food prices also played a major role. This led to negative sentiments.

Wholesale Price Inflation also came out higher than expected. However, the data was still lower than the previous month.

US CPI came out slightly higher than the estimates. The expected figure was 6.2% and the figure stood 6.4%. US PPI also came out higher.

UK Core CPI also came out higher than the estimates.

The US retail sales data came out strong. The figure stood highest in two years. US Jobs data indicated strength in the economy. 

Two Fed officials said yesterday that the Fed should have hiked rates bigger to reduce inflation.

India’s trade deficit fell. At the same time, exports also sank. 

There was consensus in the market on Thursday and this led to the gap-up. As you know, consensus is dangerous in markets. When the market started falling, the positions accelerate the fall and this is exactly what happened on the expiry day with long unwinding.

SGX Nifty is at 17,993.

INDIA VIX is at 13.1, a marginal increase.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,960, 17,900, 17,800 and 17,745. We can expect resistances at 17,985, 18,035 and 18,135.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 41,000, 40,900, 40,600 and 40,300. Resistances are at 41,380, 41,520, 41,800 and 42,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18,340, 18,250 and 18,175. We can expect resistances at 18,500, 18,630 and 18,740.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 18,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 41,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 41,000.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,700. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,400.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

US Markets holiday on account of Washington’s birthday.

TUESDAY

US Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI
UK Manufacturing PMI

India GDP

WEDNESDAY

Germany CPI
MPC Meeting minutes
Fed Minutes

THURSDAY

US GDP

FRIDAY
_

I will watch 17,745 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,135 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,820 on Monday. The index slowly moved down to 17,650 by Tuesday noon. The level offered a strong support and NIFTY bounced to give a rally that stopped at 17,900 on Wednesday. The resistance continued to limit the prices on Thursday as well. Friday saw a range-bound day and NIFTY ended the week flat at 17,857.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 41,461 on Monday and consolidated by taking support at 41,300. The index moved down on Tuesday but there was a bounce from 41,100. 41,600-800 acted as a strong resistance zone and BNF ended the week at 41,559, up by 60 points or 0.14%.

IT moved up by 0.89%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 3,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crores.

Global Markets
The US markets closed in the red with S&P500 closing 1% lower. Dow managed to close with minor losses only. The IT stocks were the major losers but they had moved up well in the previous weeks. The European markets also closed lower. DAX is 1% down WoW. The Asian markets had a red week except for NIKKEI which closed 0.6% higher. 

NIFTY’s weekly candle is a doji. The range was strictly controlled. Volatility subsided and the VIX is now below 13. The price movement is within the range of the 23rd Jan weekly candle.

RBI hiked the interest rate by 25 basis points. The event did not make the day rather volatile, unlike the previous time. Though inflation has eased, it is still higher than the target and thus the body did not say that it is an end to the hike for the year. Still, the chances for another hike this year are less.

Germany’s CPI came out slightly better than expected. Hope you remember the statement by the experts saying we cannot expect a continuation of the decline in the inflation rate when it dropped last month. Let us see if the trend continues.

The price action of DAX looked good and it seems that the German market can hit an all-time high before Nifty. Both indices are nearly 5% away from the high. However, the last two day candles do not look good and it has also led to a red close for the weekly candle.

SGX Nifty is at 17,883.

INDIA VIX dropped to 12.7.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,800, 17,720 and 17,650. We can expect resistances at 17,915, 17,970 and 18,000.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 41,500, 41,250 and 41,100. Resistances are at 41,600, 41,800 and 42,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18,480, 18,400 and 18,250. Resistances are at 18,550, 18,660 and 18,900.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,800.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 41,500. The highest put OI build-up also is at 41,500.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,700. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,400.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

India CPI 

TUESDAY

India WPI

US CPI

WEDNESDAY

UK CPI

THURSDAY

US PPI

FRIDAY
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Oil prices have rebounded after falling by 8% last week. Keep an eye on the prices.

There was heavy selling by FIIs in January and if you look at February data, you can notice that there is a slowdown in the pace. 

Adani Enterprises will announce its results this week.

The most important event is the release of US inflation data. December inflation was at 6.5% and the January data is expected at 6.2%.

I will watch 17,800 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,915 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,577. The week was rather volatile. Adani issue, Fed rate decision and Union Budget led to extreme movements in the market. If there is a need to brief the days, then Monday, Tuesday and Thursday were flat days and Friday saw the closing rally. Wednesday being the event day saw wild moves. NIFTY closed at 17,854, up by 250 points or 1.4%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 40,018. Low was made at 39,400. Wednesday’s range was 2,500 points. 41K was crossed again on Friday and BNF closed at 41,499, up by 1154 points or 2.9%.

IT moved up by 2.8%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 14,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 14,000 crores.

Global Markets
A rally was seen last week. IT stocks rallied heavily. However, Dow Jones closed flat. Also, HANG SENG closed 4% lower. There is no momentum in the Asian markets. The west stayed strong last week.

Adani Issue update.
The stocks plunged heavily last week on the Hindenburg report. Some of the Adani stocks saw a recovery on Friday. This could be due to the statement from Fitch Ratings. They said that there is no change in the credit profile of Adani companies even after Hindenburg Report.  Also, Nirmala Sitharaman said that the banks are well within the exposure limit. Adani FPO was cancelled. Adani Ports will announce their results this week.

Fed hiked the interest rate by 25 basis points.

The US Jobs data revealed that there was an unusual addition in the jobs amid recession.

SGX Nifty is at 17,800.

INDIA VIX dropped to 14.4.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,680, 17,600 and 17,540. We can expect resistances at 17,970, 18,000 and 18,100.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 40,850, 40,700 and 40,340. Resistances are at 42,000, 42,500 and 42,770.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18200, 18,110 and 18,030. Resistances are at 18,500, 18,660 and 18,800.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,600.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 40,500.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,800.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

___

TUESDAY

Powell speech

WEDNESDAY

RBI Interest rate decision 10 AM

THURSDAY

Germany CPI

FRIDAY
Euro CPI

UK GDP

RBI event will be the highlight of the week. We are expecting a repo rate hike of 25 basis points. The current rate is 6.25.

The market looks rather uncertain due to the Adani issue. It is hard to form a view on the market since there is extreme volatility and the move is news-dependent. Still, crossing 18K will be a reversal sign.

I will watch 17,600 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,000 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-up at 18,119. The index closed above 18,100 on Monday and opened with another gap-up on Tuesday. The day ended absolutely flat. Nifty had a huge red candle just after opening on Wednesday. The market remained closed on Thursday on account of Republic day. Nifty had a huge fall on Friday as well. The index ended the week at 17,604, down by 423 points or 2.35%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 42,893 on Monday. The index took firm support at 42,600 twice but the negativity on Wednesday took the index down and the index fell by more than 1,000 points on the expiry day. The fall continued on Friday and BNF ended the week at 40,345, down by 2162 points or 5.09%.

IT moved up by 0.8%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 2,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,500 crores.

The Hindenburg report ruined the market sentiments. The report said that the Adani group has committed fraud. More importantly, prominent figures in the market are giving credibility to the Hindenburg research team and this has aggravated the issue.

Adani stocks plunged last week and the banks followed. As you know, several banks have lent loans to the Adani group and if Adani gets into trouble, the banks will fall.

The global markets rallied last week. The US markets were led by the IT giants. FTSE closed flat. The Asian markets also took part in the rally. The Chinese markets remained shut the previous week on account of the Chinese New Year.

Looking at the week-chart of Nifty, the structure has been ruined. The up-move that started in September was arrested in December and the market was consolidating above 17,800 in the last four weeks. The level has been broken and it seems like another impulsive round on the downside.

SGX Nifty is at 17,720.

INDIA VIX increased by 25% to 17.3.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,500, 17,420, 17,300 and 17,100. We can expect resistances at 17,650, 17,730,  17,800 and 17,875.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 40,150, 40,000 and 39,850. Resistances are at 40,400, 40,700 and 41,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,915 and 17,700. Resistances are at 18,120, 18,280 and 18,400.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 40,500.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY

___

TUESDAY

Euro CPI

German GDP

Germany CPI

WEDNESDAY

Union Budget

Germany Manufacturing PMI

Fed interest rate decision

THURSDAY

ECB Press conference

BOE and ECB interest rate decision

FRIDAY
Jobs data

So, it is an event-packed week. Union Budget and Fed interest rate decision will be the most important events. We can expect a 25 basis points rate hike this time.

This is the last budget before the 2024 Elections. This makes it more important. Inflation is a worry. Will there be a general price rise is the question. As you know, there is a global economic slowdown and layoffs. We can expect a rise in the basic exemption limit in tax. The government is expected to take measures to strengthen the start-up ecosystem. PLI schemes may cover more sectors.

Talking about the Adani issue, their CFO said that these false accusations are a threat not to Adani but to India. One should not forget that Indian banks have trusted Adani group and also the government has entrusted Adani with various projects. The Fall of Adani would be catastrophic. We will have to wait and see if Adani can fulfil the promises.

Half of Nifty 50 companies have released their earnings already. SBI, HDFC, L&T and Bajaj Finserv are among the major companies that will announce their results this week.

 It is better to stay away if you are a non-directional option seller or else, you can trade with limited quantity. 

I will watch 17,500 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,800 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,019. Monday was a down-trending day. Support was taken near 17,850 and the index rallied for the next two days. Expiry day saw a gap-down opening as there was global negativity and the index had a choppy day. Nifty fell on Friday to close the week at 18,028, up by 71 points or 0.4%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 42,625 and moved down on Monday. The index took support at 41,850 on Tuesday and moved higher. However, 42,500 acted as a strong resistance and the expiry was in a tight range. The index outperformed and consolidated on Friday. BNF ended the day at 42,507, up by 135 points or 0.3%.

IT moved up by 2%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 2,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,500 crores.

Consolidation continues in our market. The week candle is a doji. The previous candle also was a doji. If you look at BNF, the doji has moderate bullishness though it can be ignored.

Looking at the global markets, the west saw weakness whereas the Asian markets closed in the green. However, NASDAQ moved higher.Our IT index might have got inspired from this up-move.

India’s Wholesale Price Inflation came out at a 22-month low, 4.95%.
Windfall taxes were further reduced and Reliance saw an up-move on Tuesday. But the stock is consolidating at a low. 

Germany inflation came out as expected at 8.9%.

HUL, ICICI Bank, Indusind Bank and Reliance announced results last week. HUL and ICICI results were better than estimates. Reliance missed estimates. 
Premium was slightly lower on Thursday as VIX has come down.

SGX Nifty is at 18,127.

INDIA VIX dropped to 13.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,940 and 17,860. We can expect resistances at 18,165, 18,230 and 18,350.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 42,500, 42,250 and 42,000. Resistances are at 42,650, 42,720 and 43,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18,700, 18,600 and 18,465. Resistances are at 18,850, 19,000 and 19,100.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,100. The highest put OI build-up also is at 18,100.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 42,500. The highest put OI build-up also is at 42,500.

FINNIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,900. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,700.

Keep the following in mind on the following days.

MONDAY

Chinese markets and Hong Kong holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

TUESDAY

Chinese markets and Hong Kong holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

British, Germany and US Manufacturing PMI 

WEDNESDAY

Chinese markets and Hong Kong holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

THURSDAY

Only China is on holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

US GDP

FRIDAY
Only China is on holiday on account of Chinese New Year.

The market is continuing to consolidate. We need a close outside 17,800-18,250 to get a trend. 

The week is truncated by the Republic day holiday. Expiry will fall on Wednesday.

The US markets are trying to recover. You can see a W breakout happening in the Dow Jones index. 

Corporate results will continue this week.

Monday: Axis Bank

Tuesday: Maruti Suzuki India

Friday: Bajaj Finance

I will watch 17,945 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,165 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!