Tag: dalal street

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-up at 19,253 and rallied. The up-move continued on Tuesday but there was consolidation on Wednesday with 19,375 zone as support. The index broke Tuesday’s high of 19,435, retested and moved up on Thursday. There was a correction on Friday and the index closed at 19,331, up by 143 points or 0.74%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 44,985 and had an 800 points range last week. 45,370 acted as resistance though there was a breakout to hit 45,800 on Tuesday. There was an immediate rejection followed by consolidation. 45,370 acted as a resistance on Thursday as well. There was profit booking on Friday and BN closed at 44,925, up by 178 points or 0.4%.

IT closed flat.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 9,000 cr last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 7,000 crores.

The global markets moved down last week. The US markets closed 2-3% in the red and the European markets closed 3-4% lower. The Asian markets also closed 2-3% lower except for the Chinese markets.

MONDAY

Gift Nifty replaced Sgx Nifty.

US markets had a half day on Monday and an off on Tuesday on account of Independence day.

India Manufacturing PMI came out at 57.8 against an expectation of 58. Still, it is an expansion.

TUESDAY

It was an insane premium move on Tuesday and option sellers might have lost big.

Services PMI came out at 58.5 lower than the estimate of 60.5.

WEDNESDAY

Fed Minutes said that there will be hikes in the future though at a slower pace to control inflation. Minutes hit the markets negatively because it revealed that the decision to pause was not unanimous and there were so many members standing for hikes.

THURSDAY

Beautiful price action in Nifty breaking 19,435.

FRIDAY

Aggressive shifting of call OI to 45,000, 45,100 and 45,200. This led to some short covering in the second half but the bears won it in the end.

Gift Nifty is at 19,385.

INDIA VIX is at 11.5.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 19,320, 19,265 and 19,200. We can expect resistances at 19,375, 19,435 and 19,520.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 44,800, 44,500 and 44,280. Resistances are at 45,100, 45,370 and 45,660.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 20,000, 19,950 and 19,880. We can expect resistances at 20,165, 20,250 and 20,315.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,400. The highest put OI build-up also is at 19,400. PCR is 0.7.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 45,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 45,000. PCR is 0.7.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 21,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,500. PCR is 0.6. The next largest OI is at 19,800 PE and 20,300 CE.

Major events of the week:

MONDAY

Fed Officials speeches

TUESDAY
11:30 Germany CPI

WEDNESDAY

17:30 India CPI, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output

18:00 US CPI

THURSDAY

11:30 UK Construction Output, UK GDP, Industrial data 

          EU Industrial data

18:00 US PPI

FRIDAY

12:00 India WPI

India Inflation is expected to remain flat as food prices are rising but crude oil prices are remaining flat.

US inflation is expected to ease a bit.

Corporate earnings start this week.

Wednesday: TCS, HCL

Thursday: Wipro

IT results are expected to be weak.

IPO
Utkarsh Small Finance Bank

Cyient DLM

Kaka Industries and Ahasolar Technologies

HDFC Bank and HDFC merger comes into effect on July 13.

Global indices have included HDFC Bank and thus, we can expect a volatile week as there will be a lot of inflows and outflows.

Breaking 19,435 on the downside was a major move in Nifty. Do you think a correction phase has kicked in?

I will watch 19,200 on the downside in NIFTY. 19,520 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,694 and took multiple bounces off 18,650. The level was watched closely on Tuesday but NF opened with a gap-up and rallied. There was a follow-up move on Wednesday and NF hit a new all-time high. Thursday was a holiday on account of Eid and NF continued the up-move on Friday. Nifty closed at 19,189, up by 524 points or 2.8%.

BANK NIFTY opened at 43,730 and rallied on Tuesday after a consolidating Monday. BN continued the up-move on Wednesday and Friday. 44,500 was skipped with a gap-up on Friday and there was another 200+ points rally. BN closed at 44,747, up by 1124 points or 2.6%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat and consolidated above 19,450. The rally on Tuesday took FIN NIFTY near 19,800. The rally continued for the next two days and the index crossed 20K. FIN NIFTY closed at 20,058, up by 543 points or 2.8%.

IT moved up by 3.5%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 20,000 cr last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 1,500 crores.

The global markets had a positive week overall. The US markets moved up by more than 2% and the European markets also rallied. The Asian markets ended mixed but most of the indices closed in the green.

There were no major events last week.

SGX Nifty is at 19,280.

INDIA VIX is at 10.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 19,000, 18,850 and 18,770. We can expect resistances at 19,200 and 19,300.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 44,500, 44,300 and 44,170. Resistances are at 44,800 and 45,000.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 20,000, 19,950 and 19,880. We can expect resistances at 20,100 and 20,200.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,000. PCR is 1.6.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 45,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 44,500. PCR is 1.5.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 20,100. The highest put OI build-up is at 20,000. PCR is 1.5.

It was a short week for our markets. There was a strong rally from 18,650, the support on Monday. All major indices hit all-time high!

It was alright to think that profit booking could take place on Friday. It usually happens after a new all-time high but the market rallied on Friday.

Major events of the week:

Monday
Wall Street early close on account of Independence day

India Manufacturing PMI

US Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday

US Holiday

Wednesday

EU, Germany, UK PMI

Fed Meeting Minutes

Thursday

US Services PMI 

Friday
Germany Industrial Production

Jobs Data

Lagarde Speech

I will watch 19,000 on the downside in NIFTY. 19,200 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,881. ATH was missed and there was a big fall. It was a rally on Tuesday that was in alignment with the pattern of alternate bullish and bearish days. Wednesday was a flat day but with movement. NF fell on Thursday and had a range-bound Friday. Nifty closed at 18,665, down by 160 points or 0.85%.

BANK NIFTY opened almost flat at 44,040 on Monday and fell. Support was taken at 43,350 and the index had a range-bound week. 44,000 was protected by sellers and BN moved down to close at 43,623, down by 315 points or 0.72%.

IT closed 0.9% lower.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1.5 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors also net-bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crores.

It was a negative week for the global markets. The US markets closed deep in the red. The European markets and the Asian markets also closed deep in the red.

It seems like we are in a separate sphere away from the global markets if you look into the previous weeks.

Adani stocks moved down last week on Bloomberg reports that US regulators are looking into the conglomerate.

We had speeches by Fed officials. Powell said that higher rates are needed to curb inflation. 

UK inflation came out slightly higher than expected but not big enough to have an impact. Manufacturing PMI in European economies came out slightly lower than expected.

The most important event was the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. There was a surprise hike of 50 basis points when everyone was expecting a 25 basis points hike. This is the reason why you see European markets deep in the red.

SGX Nifty is at 18,900.

INDIA VIX is at 11.2.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,550, 18,500 and 18,420 We can expect resistances at 18,6585, 18,750 and 18,850.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,500, 43,350 and 43,265. Resistances are at 43,680, 44,000 and 44,100.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,500, 19,470 and 19,370. We can expect resistances at 19,540, 19,600 and 19,650.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,800. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,000. PCR is 0.8.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 44,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 443,500. PCR is 0.85.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,600. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,500. PCR is 0.8.

The weekly candle is red. The major swing point of 18,685 on the day-chart has been broken. Is it going to be a double-top reversal?

Let us watch 43,350 on the downside. That is a major level for positional players. 44,000-44,170 zone is crucial. Hope you remember the significance of 44,170 in the hourly chart. 

Nifty is stronger than BN. However, 18,550 is a major level to protect for the bulls. 18,900, being just above the All-time high can be watched.

Our markets were able to move up despite no support from the global markets earlier. So, it is fine if Nifty underperforms as long as the swing points are protected in the Day-chart.

Major events of the week:

Monday
ECB Chair Lagarde Speech

Tuesday

_

Wednesday

Holiday on account of Eid

Thursday

Germany CPI

US GDP

Friday
UK GDP
Euro CPI

I will watch 18,550 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,900 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 18,633 on Monday and consolidated like the previous weeks. There was a rally on Tuesday that took Nifty above 18,700. Wednesday saw a gap-up and a quick gap-filling. A rally followed and 18,770 was touched. There was a huge fall on Thursday. NIFTY opened with a gap-up on Friday and rallied heavily with the help of short covering from 18,770. NIFTY closed at 18,826, up by 263 points or 1.41%.

BANK NIFTY opened almost flat at 44,060 on Monday and had a bearish consolidation. Tuesday and Wednesday were consolidating days. Thursday saw a huge fall. BN recovered the major part of the fall on Friday. 43,400 was the low of the week. BN closed at 43,938, down by 51 points or 0.12%.

IT closed 0.82% higher.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 6,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1,500 crores.

It was a very strong week for the global markets. The US markets closed well in the green. Look at NASDAQ! It is 3.5% up WoW. 

NIKKEI moved up by more than 4%! The Chinese markets also had a great week.

India’s Consumer Price Inflation data came out at 4.25% as expected. This is a 25-month low. Inflation has dropped by 2.3% since January. At the same time, note that it is 44 months since inflation came out below 4% and we will have to wait longer.

Wholesale Price Inflation came out at negative 3.5%. It is a contraction in the figure much more than expected.

Fed decision was the highlight of the week. It was a pause as most experts were expecting on grounds of falling inflation. The Fed officials said that there could be two more hikes coming up by the end of the year.

US inflation eased to 4% as expected. 

SGX Nifty is at 18,900.

INDIA VIX is at 10.8.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,810, 18,770 and 18,710. We can expect resistances at 18,865, 18,900 and 19,000.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,680, 43,430 and 43,265. Resistances are at 44,000, 44,100, 44,170 and 44,280.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,400, 19,320 and 19,240. We can expect resistances at 19,500, 19,540 and 19,600.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,800. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,700. PCR is 1.2.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 44,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 44,000. PCR is 0.9.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,400. PCR is 1.1.

The weekly candle changed all the way from red to green in a matter of 6 hours on Friday. It was a huge rally and thus, we were able to cast some positivity for the coming week though not as much as the global markets. 

Our markets were able to move up despite no support from the global markets earlier. So, it is fine if Nifty underperforms as long as the swing points are protected in the Day-chart.

Major events of the week:

Monday
US Holiday on account of Juneteenth day

Tuesday

Germany PPI

Wednesday

UK CPI

Thursday

China and Hang Seng holiday

BOE Meeting minutes

Fed Offical Mester speech

Friday
China and Hang Seng holiday

UK Retail sales

EU Manufacturing PMI

Fed Official Bullard Speech

US Manufacturing PMI

I will watch 18,770 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,900 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-up at 18,619 and consolidated on Monday, the same as the previous week. Tuesday saw a down-move but there was a 3 PM spike. Wednesday was a trending day with positional short-covering. It was RBI Interest rate decision on Thursday and the market shot up just after the news and then had a big fall. Friday was extremely volatile and Nifty closed at 18,563, up by 29 points or 0.16%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 44,149 and consolidated in a zone of 300 points between 44,000 and 44,300 until a breakout happened on RBI Event day. There was a big reversal and closed below 44K, at 43,989, up by 51 points 0.12%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-up 19,453 and moved up to face resistance near 19,500. Support was taken at 19,400 and a 200 points up-move followed. There was a proper rejection at 19,600 and the index fell to 19,400. FIN NIFTY closed at 19,411, up by 44 points or 0.23%. 

IT closed 3.3% lower.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 1,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crores.

The US markets had a positive week. The European markets closed in the red. The Asian markets closed well in the green with NIKKEI trading 1.3% in the green.

The Asian markets mostly ended in the green with Nikkei outperforming, ending in 2% green.

Services PMI came out higher at 61.

NSE made a historic decision last week; BANK NIFTY expiry has been shifted to Fridays. This will give three high liquidity-expiries a week for F&O traders.

Germany’s Industrial Production data came out weak.

RBI Interest rate decision came out as expected. There was a pause in April and the status-quo has been maintained. The projections are as follows: 

FY GDP est: 6.5%.

FY CPI est: 5.1%.

SGX Nifty is at 18,662.

INDIA VIX is at 11.1.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,550, 18,500 and 18,420. We can expect resistances at 18,640, 18,730 and 18,770.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,920, 43,790 and 43,680. Resistances are at 44,000, 44,100, 44,170 and 44,280.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,390, 19,320 and 19,240. We can expect resistances at 19,490, 19,540 and 19,600.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,700. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,600.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 44,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 44,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,000.

It is another red candle like the previous week. Moreover, the index had a positive WoW movement.

Consolidating here is good for the market. There could be a rally any day. At the same time, the market rarely gives a clue before reversal at the top until we see a swing point break.

As we discussed the previous week, 43,475 will continue to be a major support zone as multiple hourly candles have taken resistance there.

Major events of the week:

Monday
17:30 India CPI 

Industrial Production

Manufacturing Output

Tuesday

11:30 Germany CPI

18:00 US CPI

Wednesday

11:30 UK GDP
UK Industrial data

12:00 India WPI

18:00 US PPI

23:30 Fed Interest Rate decision

Thursday

_

Friday
14:30 Euro CPI

The most important event of the week is the Fed interest rate decision. US Inflation data will have a major impact on the Fed decision.

Traders should be careful this week as we saw extreme volatility on Friday.

I will watch 18,500 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,730 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-up at 18,600 and had a range-bound day with 18,580 and 18,640 as the top and low. The index continued consolidation on Tuesday nearly in the same range. Nifty moved below the range on Wednesday. There was a failed attempt to get back to the range on Thursday but there was a sell-off near 18,580. Nifty had an extremely volatile day on Friday and closed at 18,534, up by 35 points or 0.19%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 44,279 and was more volatile than Nifty. 44,500 was a strong resistance for the week and the sell-off from the level took BNF to 43,800 before the index had another volatile move between 43,700 and 44,300. BNF closed at 43,938, down by 80 points or 0.18%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 19,517 and tried to break 19,600. There was a down-move to 19,340. Fin Nifty tried to move up but resistance at 19,500 pushed the market down and FIN NIFTY closed flat at 19,368.

IT closed flat.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 6,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 1,000 crores.

The US markets moved up by 2% out of which the real move happened on Friday. The European markets were mixed with DAX closing 0.4% in the green and FTSE moving down by 0.3%.

The Asian markets mostly ended in the green with Nikkei outperforming, ending in 2% green.

India’s Quarterly GDP came out better than expected at 6.1%. It was estimated around 4.6%. 

The Infrastructure Output data came out lower than estimates.

MSCI Rebalancing was the highlight of the week. Kotak saw an up-move towards the end and Reliance moved down by 2% on Wednesday.

The Debt Ceiling deal could make its way through the houses. This led to positivity in the global markets.

Germany’s inflation data had no impact as it came out slightly better than estimates.

The Fed official Bowman said that the Housing sector is witnessing a rebound. However, she did not comment on probable policy changes.

SGX Nifty is at 18,717.

INDIA VIX is at 11.2.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,500, 18,400 and 18,350. We can expect resistances at 18,580, 18,660 and 18,700.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,800, 43,680 and 43,475. Resistances are at 44,000, 44,100 and 44,350.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,320, 19,235 and 19,150. We can expect resistances at 19,460, 19,500 and 19,615.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,600. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 44,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 44,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 20,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,700.

The weekly candle is again red. But the index saw an up-move WoW.

Zooming out, the market looks in a very bullish mode. There were minor pull-backs only. Even if the market consolidates here, it is favourable to the bulls. 

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that 43,475 is a crucial support for BN. Let us see if the bulls can protect the level.

There is positivity in the global markets. The bulls should be able to take the markets higher without loss in momentum after the gap-up opening to keep the hopes alive.

Major events of the week:

MONDAY

India Services PMI
Germany PMI
UK PMI

EU PMI
US Services PMI

TUESDAY

_

WEDNESDAY

Germany Industrial Production Data

THURSDAY
RBI Interest rate decision

I will watch 18,500 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,660 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 18,322 and moved higher on Monday. There was a rejection at 18,460 in the last hour and a follow-up on the downside on Tuesday. Support was taken at 18,130 on Wednesday but Thursday was a down-trending day. 18,065 was protected on Friday and Nifty moved up to close at 18,203, down by 111 points or 0.61%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 43,779 and moved higher. Resistance was taken around 44,100. This region proved to be a strong sellers’ zone and there was a proper rejection on the expiry day. The index moved up on Friday and closed at 43,969, up by 217 points or 0.50%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat at 19,520, took resistance at 19,630 and fell heavily on the following days. Thursday saw a gap-up, volatility and this was followed by a recovery move on Friday. FIN NIFTY closed at 19,420, down by 87 points or 0.45%.

IT closed 0.98% in the green giving a follow-up to the previous up-move.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 4,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 600 crores.

The US markets had a strong week powered by the IT sector. Though DOW could close just 0.4% in the green, NASDAQ had a 3% up-move in the week. FTSE had a flat week whereas DAX moved more than 2% up. 

The Asian markets are mostly positive. NIKKEI closed 4% in the green. Though HANG SENG closed 0.9% lower, we can say that it was a strong week for the Asian markets.

India’s WPI came out at a negative -0.9% and the expected figure was -0.2%. You might have heard that it is not good for the economy but there is no threat of deflation in India and hence, the inflation data can be taken as positive for the market.

There were worries about the US debt ceiling crisis. However, let us hope there will be a deal soon before 1st June.

Once HDFC twins’ dividend was paid, the discount started dropping in BNF futures.

US Retail Sales data showed a 0.4% growth, missing estimates. It was expected at 0.8%. However, the core sales figure is strong.

SBI results: Expected was 67% and the figure came out at 83%.  The results induced volatility on Thursday as usual.

SGX Nifty is at 18,209.

INDIA VIX is at 12.3, almost the same as last week. 

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,110, 18,065 and 18,000. We can expect resistances at 18,225, 18,250 and 18,315.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,680, 43,500 and 43,265 . Resistances are at 44,000, 44,100 and 44,500.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,380, 19,320, 19,200 and 19,045. We can expect resistances at 19,600, 19,620 and 19,780.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,200. The highest put OI build-up also is at 18,200.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 44,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 43,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 20,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,800.

The weekly candle is a red candle and indecision is evident. At the same time, Bank Nifty’s candle is green. 

Major events of the week:

MONDAY
_

TUESDAY
Germany Manufacturing PMI

WEDNESDAY
UK CPI

THURSDAY

Germany GDP

US GDP

FRIDAY

_

From Powell’s speech on Friday, it is still unclear if there will be a hike or not. But as we discussed earlier, the language used in the last Fed meet was hinting at a pause.  The next Fed meeting will be on 13-14 June.

I will watch 18,060 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,315 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-up at 18,126 on Monday and had a trending day. Tuesday saw a gap-up opening followed by a fall. Support was taken at 18,225 on Wednesday and the index rallied further. There was a big gap-up opening on the expiry day and a down-move followed. 18,200 offered support and NIFTY rallied on Friday to close at 18,315, up by 346 points or 1.36%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 42,851 and moved higher. There was resistance at 43,350 on Tuesday and the index formed a double bottom above 42,850. There was a big rally which gained more strength on Friday. BNF closed at 43,794, up by 1132 points or 2.65%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a small gap-up at 19,090 and rallied. 19,425 offered resistance on Tuesday and FIN NIFTY fell to 19,160. Up-move followed on Wednesday but there was a sell-off on Thursday after the gap-up opening. FIN NIFTY closed at 19,507, up by 483 points or 2.54%.

IT closed 1.11% in the green.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 8,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 1,500 crores.

The US markets had another red week but NASDAQ managed to stay positive once again. The European markets closed in slight red.

The Asian markets are mixed with NIKKEI closing higher and the Chinese markets closing in the red.

MSCI rejig will see Kotak Bank benefitting and on the losing side are: HDFC, Infosys, TCS and Reliance.

US Consumer Price Inflation came out at 4.9%, better than expectations.

SGX Nifty is at 18,256.

INDIA VIX rose to 12.85.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,270, 18,200, 18,150 and 18,100. We can expect resistances at 18,350, 18,390 and 18,420.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,600, 43,500 and 43,350. Resistances are at 43,900, 44,000 and 44,150.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 19,500, 19,425, 19,400 and 19,350. We can expect resistances at 19,550, 19,650 and 19,780.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,300. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,200.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,500. The highest put OI build-up also is at 43,500.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 20,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,400.

The weekly candle is a green candle invalidating the shooting star formed last week. It is a good breakout in the weekly chart. However, we have to see if there is a follow-up candle.

Though crude oil prices saw signs of recovery, the week ended in the red for crude oil. The chart looks rather bearish.

Corporate results will continue this week.  

India’s wholesale inflation will be out on Monday. Consensus is a negative inflation. WPI had come out at a 29-month low last month. India’s CPI had come out at 4.7%, an 18-month low.

Major events of the week:

MONDAY
India WPI

Germany WPI

TUESDAY
EU GDP

US Retail sales

US Manufacturing Production

WEDNESDAY
Euro CPI

THURSDAY

Jobs data

FRIDAY

Powell speech

Bank Nifty is nearing all-time high. This is the highest weekly close for BNF. Do you think all-time high will be taken out this week?

The negative cue we have now is Industrial Production data. It declined to 1.1% against an expected 3.5%.

I will watch 18,100 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,420 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-up at 18,126 on Tuesday. Monday was a holiday on account of Maharashtra Day. The market moved sideways on Tuesday but saw a gap-down and consolidation the next day and 18K was protected. There was a huge rally on Thursday and NIFTY touched 18,270. NIFTY had a bearish Friday with negative reports regarding MSCI outflow in HDFC twins. The week ended flat at 18,069.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 43,410 and stayed above 43,300 on Tuesday. The gap-down on Wednesday was quickly bought into and the rally lasted till Thursday’s close. The high was 43,740 and BNF nosedived on Friday and broke all the major levels of 43,500, 43,000 and 42,850. BNF closed at 42,661, down by 573 points or 1.72%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 19,235, consolidated in the first half and moved down in the last hour on Tuesday. There was a U-turn on Wednesday and a huge rally followed on Thursday. The gap-down on Friday was big and the index fell to 19,000 on Friday. FIN NIFTY closed at 19,024, down by 139 points or 0.72%.

IT had a flat week.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 5,500 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 3,000 crores.

The US markets had a red week but NASDAQ managed to stay flat. DOW moved down by 1.2%. There were fears of the banking crisis but JP Morgan came forward to buy the assets of the bank. 

The European markets had a mixed week with FTSE going down by more than 1% and DAX closing slightly in the green. The same is the case in the Asian markets but with a positive bias as NIKKEI is 1% up WoW.

Fed interest rate decision was the highlight of the week. Fed hiked the interest rate by another 25 basis points. Is this the last hike in the cycle is the question. Though Powell said that no decision was made on this, the language of the statement was similar to the way rate hikes ended back in 2006.

Powell said that the banking system is strong and the investors need not worry as the government will interfere more.

There were reports saying MSCI would use an adjustment factor of 0.5 to compute the weightage of the entity against an expected factor of 1. This will result in an outflow of nearly $200 M. As a result, HDFC twins moved down by more than 5%.

SGX Nifty is at 18,178.

INDIA VIX rose by 12% to 12.3.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,955 and 17,890. We can expect resistances at 18,150, 18,200 and 18,270.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 42,500, 42,350 and 42,000.  Resistances are at 42,850, 43,000 and 43,265.

FINNIFTY has supports at 19,000, 18,900 and 18,840. Resistances are at 19,045, 19,100 and 19,165.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,200. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,500.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 42,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,500.

The weekly candle turned bearish in a flash. The last day saw immense selling pressure, triggered by the HDFC sell-off. The day-candle is a big red candle leading to a shooting star formation.  Even the weekly candle is a shooting star.

The day-chart of BNF saw a big red candle, engulfing five candles. Though the weekly candle is rather bearish, note that it was just a flat week.

Crude oil prices dropped heavily last week. There was a 6% fall in prices.

Corporate results will continue this week. You can focus on the results of L&T, Asian Paints and Tata Motors.

India’s inflation report will be out on Friday. It is expected to come at a 16-month low, below 5. 

US inflation data will be released on Wednesday. 

Major events of the week:

MONDAY
UK Holiday
Germany Industrial Production 11:30 AM

TUESDAY
_

WEDNESDAY
Germany CPI 11:30 AM
US CPI 6 PM

THURSDAY

BOE Meeting Minutes and Interest Rate Decision 4:30 PM

OPEC Monthly Report 4:30 PM

FRIDAY

India CPI  5:30 PM
India Industrial Data 5:30 PM

UK Industrial data 10:30 AM
UK GDP  11:30 AM

I will watch 17,890 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,270 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 17,709 on Monday. The index took support at the major level of 17,620 and started rallying.  It was a perfect up-trending week. 17,800 was crossed on Thursday and the index took less time to move another 200 points. 18,000 was crossed on Friday and NIFTY ended the week at 18,065, up by 441 points or 2.5%.

BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 42,365 and moved higher. The zone around 42,800 posed resistance to the index. BNF moved down to 42,500 and then rallied. The close was at 43,000 on the expiry day and BNF had a green day on Friday. The index ended the week at 43,234, up by 1116 points or 2.65%.

FIN NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 18,912, took support at 18,840 and moved up on Monday. 19,045 was the challenge for the week and the index failed to break it on Tuesday. There was a sizeable fall but FIN NIFTY caught up on Wednesday and consolidated at the resistance on Thursday. The index broke out on Thursday but the opening was weak on the last day of the week. Support was taken at 18,980 and a big up-move followed to end the week at 19,163, up by 409 points or 2.18%.

IT moved up by 3.3%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 5,000 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crores.

Both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers last week. The major share came on Friday.

The US markets had a green week. The European markets had a mixed week with DAX closing slightly in the green and FTSE in the red. Dow Jones fell in the first half of the week and recovered well in the second half. There was fear among participants regarding weaker results. However, the results were above the estimates. This led to the recovery we saw. 

The concern now is Republic Bank shares falling heavily. There was a fall of more than 40% on Friday and the bank is now trading with just 3% of its share value in January!

The Asian markets also had a mixed week. Looking at NIKKEI, the index saw a 1% up-move last week.

It was not a week with major data releases. US Quarterly GDP figure showed that there was slower growth.

SGX Nifty is at 18,207.

INDIA VIX dropped below 11 to 10.9.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 18,000, 17,955 and 17,885. We can expect resistances at 18,135, 18,200 and 18,225.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 43,000, 42,850 and 42,600.  Resistances are at 43,265, 43,500 and 43,680.

FIN.NIFTY has supports at 19,100, 19,045 and 18,975. We can expect resistances at 19,200, 19,285 and 19,320.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 18,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,000. The highest put OI build-up also is at 43,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,250. The highest put OI build-up is at 19,000.

The weekly candle is a strong green candle. As we discussed last week, the pull-back we saw was completely fine for another round by bulls as the retracement move was less than 30% of the rally we had. There is a bullish sandwich formation in the weekly chart now. 

Almost all the major resistance points in the weekly chart have been broken. 18,110 is the next level to watch for the weekly close. A consolidation somewhere above the level and another breakout can take NIFTY to all-time high.

The last week’s move boosted the confidence of the bulls by reversing the long down-trend. The pace is a bit alarming looking at the possibility of a fierce down-move. But considering the point that the major levels have been broken on the upside, we can say that the market is in favour of long-players. 

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY
Holiday for global markets except for Wall Street

Maharashtra day: Holiday

US PMI

India Manufacturing PMI

TUESDAY
Euro CPI

WEDNESDAY
Fed interest rate decision

THURSDAY
ECB Interest rate decision 

We can focus on Fed interest rate decision. Will there be a pause or hike is the question. The probability is for another hike and it could be the last hike in the cycle. There have been nine hikes recently. Note that there is fear of recession as well.

Tata Steel, Titan, Hero MotoCorp and HDFC will announce their results next week.

Auto Sales data also will be released.

Kotak Bank results were better than estimates. HDFC results will be out tomorrow. If that too comes out positive, it can be a follow-up candle.

I will watch 18,000 on the downside in NIFTY. 18,135 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week with a gap-down at 17,736 on Monday and exhibited weakness as Infosys results dampened the sentiments. However, support was taken at 17,570, a major level from 6th April. There was recovery from there but the sellers were strong enough to lead the market to a bearish consolidation phase. There was a move below 17,570 on Friday but there was quick buying as well. NIFTY closed at 17,624, down by 204 points or 1.14%.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 42,295 and saw a sudden down-move influenced by the general market sentiments. The index took support at 41,800 and moved up by 700 points. 42,000 provided support for the index and 42,500 showed the strength of the sellers. BNF ended the week flat at 42,118.

FIN NIFTY opened with a minor gap-up at 18,968. After an initial fall to 18,670, the index consolidated in a range of 200 points. FIN NIFTY faced resistance near 18,900 and took support at 18,670. The index closed at 18,754, down by 100 points or 0.53%.

IT fell by 5.37%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 4,600 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,000 crores.

The US markets closed slightly lower whereas the European markets closed higher. Wall Street is continuing consolidation at the top (recent top) after a rally from the recent low. DAX is very near all-time-high.

The Asian markets had a bearish week and most of the major indices closed nearly 2% lower. 

The effect of Infosys results on our market was the highlight of the last week. Infosys fell by 9% on Monday. Our market has been rallying for a while without giving a pull-back and this event triggered a pull-back.

India’s Wholesale Price Inflation came out at 1.34%, a 29-month low! CPI was released the previous week and was slightly lower than estimates.

China’s GDP came out better than expected. Euro CPI came out in line with the estimates whereas UK CPI came out higher than expected.

UK, Germany and EU released their Manufacturing PMI data and those are below 50 and the estimates. The figure from the US was 49.1, much higher than the previous figure and the estimates.

There was a report that the government is going to hike the capital gain tax and this might have added fuel to the fall we had on Tuesday. However, the government clarified that the report was false.

Reliance results were in line with street estimates whereas HCL Tech fared better. ICICI Bank was the star as the net profits jumped by 30%, beating the estimates.

SGX Nifty is at 17,660.

INDIA VIX is at 11.6.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,615, 17,570 and 17,425. We can expect resistances at 17,690, 17,750 and 17,835.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 42,000, 41,800 and 41,590.  Resistances are at 42,435, 42,500 and 42,600.

FINNIFTY has supports at 18,670, 18,570 and 18,500. Resistances are at 18,770, 18,830 and 18,890.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,700. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 42,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 42,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,900. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,000.

The weekly candle is a bearish engulfing candle. A pull-back was expected and the retracement is below 30% of the up-move only.

To summarise the recent trend, the fall began in December and a trend reversal happened recently. However, the market is witnessing a pull-back now. There is a bearish consolidation with support at 17,570, a major level from 6th April. Breaking this level can lead to a further down-move. On the upside, we can watch 17,830.

There are so many hurdles on the upside for long-players. What they need is a bullish consolidation here or a minor pull-back rather than a sudden reversal to the downside.

FIIs turned net sellers last week.

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY
_

TUESDAY
_

WEDNESDAY
_

THURSDAY
US GDP

FRIDAY

Germany GDP

Germany CPI

SATURDAY

EU GDP

I will watch 17,570 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,830 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!

LAST WEEK

NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,635 on Monday and had a flat day after facing rejection at 17,690. There was a gap-up on Tuesday and the index closed nearly 100 points higher. Wednesday saw an up-trending day and 17,750 was broken. NIFTY saw a V-shaped recovery on Thursday and ended the week at 17,828, up by 229 points or 1.3%. Friday was a holiday.

BANK NIFTY opened flat at 41,136 on Monday and moved down. The next day saw a big gap-up above 41K and the index crossed 41,500. BNF took support at the previous day’s high and shot up. There was a huge up-move towards the close and BNF ended the week at 42,133, up by 1,092 points or 2.66%.

FIN NIFTY opened flat 18,491 and was bearish on Monday. The gap-up above 18,500 on Tuesday was sustained throughout the day. There was a follow-up on Wednesday and the index had a big day on Thursday. FIN NIFTY closed at 18,854, up by 392 points or 2.12%.

IT moved down by 1.47%.

Foreign Institutional Investors net-bought shares worth Rs 3,400 crores last week.

Domestic Institutional Investors net-sold shares worth Rs 400 crores.

The US markets and European markets had a positive week. It was an event-packed week and so, there were volatile moves. The Asian markets also moved higher barring some sectors in China.

India CPI came out at 5.66% and that is slightly better than the estimates. This is a 15-month low. US Inflation was expected at 5.2 and the figure came out at 5.0%. However, core CPI remains high.

India’s Industrial production came out better than estimates at 5.6% YoY. Manufacturing output is better than expectations, 5.3% MoM.

Fed Minutes were released on Wednesday. The officials hinted at the possibility of a mild recession that would start later this year. It is expected that there will be a recovery in the subsequent two years. They addressed the banking crisis as well.

Germany’s CPI came out at 7.4% YoY as expected. UK GDP came out slightly lower than expected. However, other data from the UK came out better than expected. US PPI  also was better than the estimates.

TCS and Infosys Results came out weak and thus, the IT sector saw weakness. HDFC Bank results came in line with the estimates.

SGX Nifty is at 17,813.

INDIA VIX stays the same at 11.9.

WEEK AHEAD

NIFTY has supports at 17,750, 17,690 and 17,575. We can expect resistances at 17,870, 17,955 and 18,040.

BANK NIFTY has supports at 42,000, 41,830 and 41,590.  Resistances are at 42,200, 42,500 and 42,825.

FIN NIFTY has supports at 18,770, 18,670 and 18,500. We can expect resistances at 18890, 19,000 and 19,045.

NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,800. 

BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 43,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 41,000.

FIN NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 19,200. The highest put OI build-up is at 18,700. 

Looking at the weekly chart, there is a strong follow-up to the previous green candles. The swing point of 17,750 in the day-chart has been broken with strength. There was a good follow-up in the day-chart to the breakout. 

The rally did not see pull-backs in the last few days. A healthy rally would have minor retracements so that there are no immediate reversals. 

FIIs are continuing their buying streak. DIIs did not sell heavily as well. This is a good trend. 

Major events of the week are as follows:

MONDAY
India WPI

TUESDAY
UK Unemployment data

WEDNESDAY
Britain CPI

Euro CPI

THURSDAY
Germany PPI
Japan CPI

HCL Tech Results

FRIDAY

UK and Euro Manufacturing PMI

US Services PMI

SATURDAY

ICICI Results

Bulls would want IT to join the party. The financial stocks are performing well now. After an event-packed week, the next week will see the continuation of corporate earnings.

Do you expect a pull-back?

I will watch 17,750 on the downside in NIFTY. 17,955 can be watched on the upside.

Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!