LAST WEEK
NIFTY opened the week flat at 17,197 and the profit booking which started last week continued. 17,000 offered a strong support and NIFTY bounced back reminding us of the last week’s move from the same level. The index continued the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nifty closed slightly in the red on Thursday but Friday saw a huge up-move, closing at 17,670, up 517 points or 3.02%.
BANK NIFTY also showed similar movement by opening flat and bouncing back from 35,000. There was rejection at 36,600 on Thursday but Bank Nifty moved up by nearly 800 points or Friday. The index closed the week at 37,149, up 1,738 points or 4.91%.
It was a good week for AUTO and FMCG.
Foreign Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 5,600 crores last week.
Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 5,000 crores.
Though the US markets and the European markets could close the week in the green, there is significant selling pressure.
European markets started opening at 12:30 as daylight savings has switched.
Putin reiterated that the European nations will have to make the payment for gas in Rubles. He added that special bank accounts have been created to where Forex can be transferred. When the Houthi attack on oil fields also came into the picture, crude oil prices were expected to move higher. But China announced lockdown in Shanghai and this led to the fall in the prices as China is the leading importer of crude oil.
GST data came out at another all-time high, at Rs 1.42 lac cr. The auto sales data was slightly better than the expectations.
US jobs data said that there were strong gains. This is a concern for inflation.
Saudi Aramco sites were attacked by Houthis by the use of missiles. Saudi said that they will not be responsible for the shortage in supply. The US will release oil from their strategic reserves.
SGX NIFTY is at 17,710.
INDIA VIX dropped by 10% to 18.4.
WEEK AHEAD
NIFTY has supports at 17,600, 17,400 and 17,320. We can expect resistances at 17,800, 17,900 and 18,000.
BANK NIFTY has supports at 36,800, 36,500 and 36,300. Resistances are at 37,400, 38,000 and 38,200.
NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,500.
BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 38,000 and the largest put OI build-up is at 36,500.
Fed minutes for March will be released on Wednesday. This will give better clarity on the tightening policy. Fed had hiked 25 basis points in the recent meeting.
Crude Oil prices have to be watched closely this week along with the events in Ukraine.
RBI will meet from 6th to 8th April and announce the new monetary policy on Friday. Probably, there will be no hikes this time. However, the commentary will be important at a time when Fed is hiking rates and the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine are easing.
Let us closely watch how NIFTY would respond to 18,000 if there is an up-move.
Wish you all the best for the financial year!