LAST WEEK
NIFTY opened the week flat with a gap-up at 17,816 and moved higher on Monday following the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger. The index moved down on Tuesday following a correction in HDFC twins. Wednesday saw a gap-down opening following uncertainties related to Fed minutes. With the hawkish Fed minutes, NIFTY moved down on Thursday. RBI decided to keep the rates unchanged and maintain the accommodative stance on Friday. The markets moved higher and NIFTY closed the week at 17,784, up by 114 points or 0.64%.
BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-up at 37,861 and moved higher. There was a correction on Tuesday followed by a gap-down on Wednesday. BNF tried to break 38,000 but failed. This was followed by consolidation with a strong support at 37,500. BANK NIFTY closed the week at 37,752, up by 604 points or 1.62%.
It was a consolidation phase for most of the sectors.
Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 6,400 crores last week.
Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 4,100 crores.
The Fed minutes were hawkish. There will be a rapid reduction in the balance sheet. The reduction will be at the rate of $95 Billion per month. Also, 50 basis points hike come into effect after the next meeting.
RBI maintained the accommodative stance and status quo in the interest rates. The inflation forecast was revised from 4.5% to 5.7%. Gdp forecast was brought down from 7.8% to 7.2%.
The other major highlights of the week include the following:
Putin signed a decree restricting visa to unfriendly countries.
European Union said that they will ban Russian trucks from entering EU countries.
Zelensky said on Wednesday that Russia has not abandoned its plan to occupy the whole of Ukraine.
German Finance Minister said that they should give up Russian oil and gas and it should happen as soon as possible.
India’s agricultural exports touched a historic high of 50 B USD.
US 10Y bond rose to 2.7%.
Russian forces have withdrawn from Kyiv and the northern region whereas they have intensified attacks in the south and the west. Boris Johnson has come forward with aid to Ukraine.
The US markets are in the consolidation phase closing the week in the red. The European markets closed the week slightly in the green.
SGX NIFTY is at 17,860.
INDIA VIX dropped to 17.7.
WEEK AHEAD
NIFTY has supports at 17,640, 17,600, 17,550 and 17,470. We can expect resistances at 17,860, 17,900 and 18,000.
BANK NIFTY has supports at 37,700, 37,450 and 37,150. Resistances are at 37,900, 38,250 and 38,650..
NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 18,500 followed by 18,000. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000 followed by 17,700.
BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 38,000 and the largest put OI build-up is at 37,500.
CPI Inflation data for March will be out on Tuesday.
The expectation is around 6.5%. Food inflation would be under control but oil prices are a major concern. Crude oil is at $103 now, dropping by 1.5% WoW as some nations plan to release from the reserves and China’s lockdown has created a fear of fall in demand.
Industrial output data will be declared on Tuesday.
The US will release the inflation data on Tuesday.
We have corporate earnings this week.
Monday: TCS
Wednesday: Infy
Saturday: HDFC Bank
The week is a short one with only 3 working days on account of Ambedkar/Mahavir Jayanti on Thursday and Good Friday. Trade safe!
Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!