LAST WEEK
NIFTY opened the week with a minor gap-up at 17,330 on Monday but fell without much news impacting the market. There was another flat opening on Tuesday but the markets rallied after taking support from 17,000 thereafter as Zelensky said that he is willing to discuss commitment not to join NATO. Wednesday saw a gap-up opening followed by a fall due to the spike in crude oil prices. NIFTY opened with a gap-down on the expiry day but moved higher and closed flat. Friday was a volatile day with a fall in the beginning and rallied later to close the day flat. NIFTY moved down by 134 points (0.78%) last week closing at 17,153.
BANK NIFTY opened the week flat at 36,573 on Monday and moved down. There was a good support formed on Tuesday at 35,400. BNF rallied from there but there was a strong resistance at 36,850. BANK NIFTY fell from there and finally closed the day above the support of 35,400, at 35,414, down by 1,018 points or 2.8%.
Metals moved higher whereas FMCG closed in the red.
Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 6,200 crores last week.
Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 2,700 crores.
Russia said that they will be accepting payments for natural gas supplies to ‘unfriendly nations’ in Rubles only. Russia added that if miss payments in Rubles, it can lead to recession.
G-7 Nations have warned Russia of the use of nuclear weapons and chemical weapons in Ukraine. Biden said that the most stringent sanctions are imposed till now and more are coming in.
Saudi Aramco sites were attacked by Houthis by the use of missiles. Saudi said that they will not be responsible for the shortage in supply. The US will release oil from their strategic reserves.
There are reports that the Russian govt has given a deadline of May 9 for the Ukrainian invasion. It is their ‘victory over Nazi’ day.
UK inflation came out at another 30-year high, at 6.2%.
US-EU will reach an energy supply deal to cut dependence on Russia. The US will increase energy supplies and Germany will halve the imports by June and to near-0 by mid-2024.
It was a consolidating week for the global markets.
SGX NIFTY is at 17,245.
INDIA VIX is at 23.4.
WEEK AHEAD
NIFTY has supports at 17,000, 16,880 and 16,650. We can expect resistances at 17,250, 17,350 and 17,480.
BANK NIFTY has supports at 35,300, 35,000 and 34,500. Resistances are at 36,000, 36,450 and 36,900.
NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 17,000.
BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 36,000 and the largest put OI build-up is at 35,000.
Jerome Powell will give another speech on Wednesday. However, this is less likely to impact the markets. Just keep in mind that there is a chance for a 50 basis points hike in April. There can be two 50 bp hikes coming up. If inflation stays above 5%, there can be four 50 bp hikes.
Keep an eye on the crude oil prices which is around $120 now. There can be a spike considering the Houthi attack on Saudi oil sites.
The major cues to watch this week are fiscal deficit data on Thursday, Auto Sales data and GST data on Friday. US will release the Q4 GDP data on Wednesday and UK will release the GDP data on Thursday. Let us keep an eye on EU CPI inflation data which will be out on Friday as well.
We can expect NIFTY to stay in a range provided there is no major news. 17,000 should be watched on the downside and 17,350 can be watched on the upside. BANK NIFTY has to cross 36,600 for a good up-move.
How was your week? Let us know in the comments section below.