LAST WEEK
NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-down at 17,209. There was an up-move which could not sustain. NIFTY closed the day with a long legged doji as a result. With Russia recognising the sovereignty of the separatist territories, NIFTY opened with a major gap-down on Tuesday but an up-move came to help following positivity in the European market. This was followed by a gap-up on Wednesday with positivity in the East but the second half sell-off took the index down. Russia started the invasion on Thursday just before our market hours and we opened with a huge gap-down and fell even more towards the end closing the expiry day below 16,300, nearly 5% in the red. With the US sanctions exempting crude, the US markets closed in the green and we followed them with a gap-up and up-move, closing the week at 16,658, down 618 points or 3.58%.
BANK NIFTY opened the week flat at 37,483 and closed in the green on Monday. There was a gap-down on Tuesday but it was followed by an up-move leading to a volatile consolidation. With the Russian invasion, BANK NIFTY fell heavily on Thursday ending the day 5.8% in the red. There was a recovery on Friday and BANK NIFTY closed the week at 36,431, down 1,168 points or 3.11%.
All the sectors closed the week in the red.
The mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks followed the general market.
Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 19,800 crores last week.
Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 21,500 crores.
The Russian invasion shook the markets worldwide last week. It is still going on with strong retaliation from the side of Ukraine supported by the US who have provided them with javelin missiles and Germany who have supplied them with anti missile tanks. Peace talks will be held soon at the Ukraine-Belarus border. The US, Canada, the UK and Europe are planning to remove Russia from SWIFT.
Crude oil prices had gone up to 105.8 last week but then dropped on seeing that crude was exempted from the sanctions by the US. It is now trading at 98 against 93.5 last week. The hike is a 40% increase in the last two months.
SGX NIFTY is trading higher at 16,976.
INDIA VIX increased by 20% to 26.7.
WEEK AHEAD
NIFTY has supports at 16,600, 16,530, 16,400 and 16,250. We can expect resistances at 16,700, 16,740, 16,840, 16,900 and 17,000.
BANK NIFTY has supports at 36,400, 36,300, 36,000 and 35,900. Resistances are at 36,550, 36,630, 37,000, 37,250 and 37,390.
NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,500. The highest put OI build-up is at 16,000.
BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 38,000 and the highest put OI build-up at 36,000.
Monthly auto sales data will be released from Tuesday onwards. Positive update is expected as there is an increase in chip supply.
Gdp growth for the quarter and infrastructure output data will be out on Monday. 6% GDP growth is expected. Also, Manufacturing PMI will be released on Wednesday and Services PMI will be released on Friday.
Jerome Powell will testify in the Congress on Wednesday and Thursday regarding the update on how the Russian invasion has affected monetary policy.
Let us keep an eye on 200 ema as we need a strong close above the moving average and then the gap to be filled for strength.
How did the war affect your portfolio? Let us know in the comments section below.