LAST WEEK
NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 16,255 on Monday and ended the day below 16,300. Selling continued in the following days and NIFTY broke 16,000. Thursday was a clear downtrending day and the index closed at around 15,800. Friday was rather volatile with the index moving higher up to 16,070 and then falling to break the previous day-close. SBI results made the day volatile. NIFTY closed the week at 15,782, down by 629 points or 3.83%.
BANK NIFTY opened with a gap-down at 34,225 and tried moving higher unlike NIFTY. The index was just below 34,800 on Wednesday prepared for a shoot but the gap-down opening spoiled the party. BNF ended the expiry day just above 33,500. Gap-up opening on Friday was futile with the index falling heavily after taking resistance at 34,000 and BNF closed the week at 33,121, down by 1470 points or 4.25%.
Metals moved down by 12% last week.
Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 20,000 crores last week.
Domestic Institutional Investors net bought shares worth Rs 18,000 crores.
Though the global markets had fallen in the last few days, there was a fantastic recovery. There was buying pressure in the US and summing up the week for Europe, it was a green week but with heavy falls in the first days. One thing we can assertively say is that the markets were rather volatile.
If you look at the weekly charts, you will not be able to see the buying pressure in NIFTY unlike the other markets. The US markets closed well in the green on Friday with NASDAQ moving higher by nearly 4%.
Rupee fell to the lowest last week. On top of it came the inflation data at 7.79% against an expected 7.5%. But the markets were already in shock with the US CPI coming out at 8.3% against 8.1%. What caused the panic was the core inflation that came at 0.6% against 0.4%. It was just 0.3% in March. This led to the fall in the global markets.
SGX NIFTY is at 15,892.
INDIA VIX spiked to 23.5.
WEEK AHEAD
NIFTY has supports at 15,740, 15,670 and 15,600. We can expect resistances at 15,860, 15,920 and 16,000.
BANK NIFTY has supports at 33,000, 32,850 and 32,200. Resistances are at 33,450, 33,900 and 34,000.
NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 17,000 followed by 16,800. The highest put OI build-up is at 15,000 followed by 15,500.
BANK NIFTY has the highest call OI build-up at 34,000 and the largest put OI build-up is at 32,500.
Note that BNF is almost at the low created during COVID. I will be watching 32,850 closely.
ITC will announce their quarterly results on Wednesday. Bharti Airtel is another heavyweight coming up with results this week, on Tuesday.
LIC will start trading on 17th May. News from the grey market is not that satisfying as it is trading at a discount now. Let us see how the stock starts trading. This will definitely have an impact on the sentiments of our market.
We have WPI data coming out on Wednesday. Japan and the EU also will announce their inflation rates on Friday and Wednesday respectively. Another event you can watch is Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday.
Focus has shifted from the Ukraine war to inflation and interest rate hikes. Note that no peace talk took place since 29th March. Nifty will have to face multiple resistances above 16,000 while moving up.
Let us know your expectations for the week in the comments section!