Last Week
Nifty jumped up over the last 5 days, gaining back losses from the last week.
NIFTY opened the week with a small gap-up at 17,615 and reached 17,885 by Wednesday. There was a big fall on Wednesday after which Thursday and Friday saw recovery. By Friday, the index touched an all-time high and closed at 17,895, up 290 points or 1.64%. If we include Monday’s gap-up, it was a more than 360 points gain in the week.
The Wednesday fall was sponsored by gas prices in Europe sharply moving up, causing concerns of inflation. This was temporarily solved by Russian President Vladimir Putin promising increased gas supplies to Europe.
Bank Nifty opened at 37,392 and moved up consistently even with the Wednesday fall. The level of 38,000 was not broken, and the index closed at 37,775, up 380 points or 1% from Monday’s opening.
Reliance was a big mover in the week along with IT and Auto stocks. Financials also slowly moved up while FMCG saw profit booking.
Nifty IT moved up in the week, taking good support ahead of the Q2 results season. TCS result was announced on Friday after market hours.
TCS results were better than market expectations, with a 9% year-on-year growth in its consolidated net profit for the September quarter to Rs 9,624 crores. Shares of the company had hit their 52-week highs on Friday.
Auto stocks saw heavy buying in the week with Tata Motors reaching fresh 52-week highs after reports that it could take over Ford’s Chennai plant.
Market linked stocks including IEX, CDSL, MCX, BSE gave breakouts and moved up in the week.
Chemical stocks moved up generally with Chinese supplies moving down after power shortage in the country. Energy stocks in the country saw some selling pressure with concerns of a power outage in the country, Tata Power asked Delhites to use electricity with care.
Foreign Institutional Investors(FIIs) have net sold Rs 3,686 crore worth of equity shares in the week.
To balance this out again, Domestic institutional investors(DIIs) net bought Rs 3,458 crore worth of shares during the week.
Week Ahead
U.S. Inflation data is expected to come out this week. The Jobs Data from the country was worse than expected last week. The inflation rate from India is also set out to come this week.
Nifty Smallcap and Nifty Midcap are giving breakouts and need to be watched.
India VIX fell more than 10% this week, closing down at 15.66.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das surprised investors by saying that the RBI will no longer continue its bond buying programme. This caused the dollar index to touch multi-month highs.
Many companies in the Indian market are set to announce their Q2 results this week including big names like Infosys, Wipro and TechM.
The highest call OI stands at 18,000 followed by 18,500. Highest Put OI is at 17,800 and followed by 17,000 and 17,700.
Keep an eye out for IT stocks this week, as results season will continue to create movement in the index. As we discussed and expected last week, they did give some movement.
After Reliance’s breakout, I think it’s time to look into HDFC Bank ahead of its results on Saturday. We may see some volatile consolidation in Bank Nifty this week.
The U.S. markets opened with a gap-up on Friday, and closed flat. SGX Nifty closed below 17,867 yesterday, slightly in the green.
Even if the Q2 results are in line with market expectations, we may see some volatile movements. I feel it’s more important to look into the small & midcap indices as they are at all-time highs on Friday.
The resistance to watch out in Nifty would surely be the all-time high near 17,950. If this is crossed and sustained, we can expect a move till 18,000, 18,100 and more. The first support to be watched out for is at 17,650 and then at 17,450.
What do you think will happen to Nifty this week? Will we see a breakout to fresh all-time highs? Or are you expecting a correction? Let us know what you think in the comments section of the marketfeed app.
