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Editorial

Reliance Q3 Results: A Quick & Easy Analysis

India’s largest company by market capitalization, Reliance Industries, declared their third-quarter results for FY21. Reliance announced consolidated revenue of Rs 1,37,829 crore, 7.4% higher than what they reported the previous quarter. Even though the revenue increased only marginally from Q2 to Q3, the net profits increased by a massive 40%. How did Reliance achieve such a feat? How did all of their segments perform? Let’s have a look.

Digital Services

Jio declared a consolidated operating revenue at Rs 19,475 crore as compared to Rs 18,496 crore reported in the previous quarter. The net profits also witnessed a QoQ 15% rise to Rs 3,486 crore. As of December 2020, the total customer base increased to 410.8 million after the addition of 25.1 million users. Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) increased to Rs 151 from Rs 145 in this quarter. By adding more customers and making more money from each customer, Reliance Jio just had nowhere to go but higher.

Source: Reliance Q3 Investor’s presentation

They had spread their 4G LTE network to new places to serve people with better connectivity. Total data traffic during the quarter increased by almost 5% to reach 1,586 crores GB. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced most of us to get on the digital platforms. JioMeet crossed 15 million users by adding more people from October to December. This digital platform for online meetings is now being used by many large enterprises, healthcare companies and government institutions. 

The chairman and MD of Reliance, Mukesh Ambani, was vocal about the future success of Jio and India together. He said, “India is today among the leaders driving the Digital Revolution in the world. In order to maintain this lead, Jio will continue to accelerate the rollout of its digital platforms and indigenously developed next generation 5G stack and make it affordable and available everywhere. Jio’s 5G service will be a testimony to the vision of AtmaNirbhar Bharat.”

Reliance Retail 

The retail segment of the company was one of the hardest hit in Q1 FY21 due to nation-wide lockdown. But as the restrictions eased up, the retail arm of Reliance kept growing. As of December 2020, 96% of stores of the company are in operation. By the end of the second quarter of this year, only 52% of the stores were operational. Even though more stores were allowed to open, overall footfall remained at 75% of Pre-COVID level. On a positive side, Fashion & Lifestyle performance has surpassed the pre-COVID levels. 

Source: Reliance Q3 Investor’s presentation

The revenue of this segment reported is Rs 37,845 crore, 8% lower when compared to the previous quarter. The main reason for this has been the transfer of Petro Retail dealership to RBML entity (Reliance-BP Joint Venture). Also, we can expect the segment to run at full pace when a few more of the Covid-19 restrictions are eased up. Even though with lower revenue, net profit has jumped by 88% on QoQ, from Rs 973 crore to Rs 1830 crore. The most amazing contribution from Reliance Retail is that they have created 51,000 new jobs created during the COVID period. This is when other business are actually laying off their workers. 

Oil-to-Chemical (O2C)

The Oil-to-Chemical arm of Reliance continued on the path of resurgence which they started in the second quarter. Total revenue increased by 10% QoQ from Rs 76,184 crore to Rs 83,838 crore. EBITDA, which is Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization, reported a rise of 10.3% QoQ to Rs 9,756 crore. Last quarter, this number was at Rs 8,841 crore.  

Although the numbers have risen as compared to the previous quarter, yearly comparison gives us a completely different outlook. Reliance generated total revenue worth Rs 1,19,121 crore in the same quarter last year. That means, on a year-on-year basis, their revenue has fallen by a massive 30%! Not only this, their EBITDA has taken a huge hit of 28% in one year. Yes, the demand for different fuels are yet to reach the pre-covid levels but such a hefty fall in their core business was not expected at all.

Reliance is willing to incubate New Energy platforms. They aim to maximize downstream production, reduce transportation fuels and create clean and green energy fuels which can aid the country to run in the long term. Thus, this signals that they want to shift from their core business? A few months back, we did discuss Mukesh Ambani’s ambition of making a sustainable India. Does that mean that this giant company wants to move away into a new business? Do they wish to be known as a tech company? You can read more about here.

Reflecting on the future of sustainable energy, Mukesh Ambani said, “I am especially pleased that the world is now closing ranks for a strong global action on Climate Change. This gives Reliance the right opportunity to accelerate our own ambitious New Energy and New Materials business wedded to the vision of clean and green development. In line with this vision, our Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) business has formally reorganised its reporting segments to reflect our new strategy and management matrix for this enterprise.”

To Sum Up

If you are a Reliance investor, you might be content with their performance. A company facing a dip in revenues has still managed to generate larger profits. This speaks how well they have paid attention to cutting their cost. A perfect example of operational efficiency!

We think that this can be another year where Reliance touches higher highs. If the government allows the roll-out of 5G in 2021, Reliance is at the best spot to take advantage in the Indian telecom sector. Reliance stated that they have already started advance tests to prepare its 5G network. They are only waiting for the government’s approval to the auction of spectrum. 

But it seems like Reliance has not been able to give enough focus to their oil-to-chemicals segment. If any company is not able to generate good numbers in its core business, doubts are bound to arise in their investor’s mind.

What are your opinions on Reliance? Do you think that they will grow even faster in 2021? You can find Reliance Q3 FY21 results here. You can find the investor’s presentation here

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Editorial Editorial of the Day

Why did Reliance Fall? In-Depth Q2 Results Analysis

Probably, the most eagerly awaited results came out late on Friday night. Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Industries reported a 15.05% year-on-year (YoY) drop in consolidated net profit at Rs 9,567 crore. This number was at Rs 11,262 crore for the corresponding quarter last year. The consolidated revenue from operations also fell by 24% to Rs 1,16,000 crore from Rs 1,53,000 crore reported a year ago.

Mukesh Ambani, Chairman and Managing Director of RIL, said: “We delivered strong overall operational and financial performance compared to the previous quarter with recovery in petrochemicals and retail segment and sustained growth in the digital services business. Domestic demand has sharply recovered across our O2C business and is now near the pre-Covid level for most products.”

Let’s have a deeper look at each segment.

Refining & Marketing (R&M)

Economic activity in the R&M segment was highly impacted by Covid-19. EBITDA fell by 50% YoY and 21% QoQ to Rs 3,002 crore. This was because the Gross refining margins (GRM) fell to $5.7/bbl from $9.4/bbl from the same quarter last year. (GRM refers to the earning on turning every barrel of crude oil into fuel.)

[Source: Quarterly Presentation] (Global oil demand growth)

Due to the easing of lockdown & preference for personal travel rising, demand for refined oil products like jet fuel saw an increase. The company is positive that the demand for fuels like gasoline and jet fuels will further increase in the third quarter. Even with lower margins, Reliance was able to outperform in the Asia Pacific and European refining margins in the challenging business environment. But with negative global sentiments in the oil market which leads to low GRM, the company might struggle in the longer run.

Reliance Jio

The telecom arm of Reliance reported another dominant result. Their market share in India’s mobile market reached 35.03%. Reliance Jio declared a 13% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 185% year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit. EBITDA rose by 8.7% QoQ to reach at Rs 7,971 crore.

Amidst the pandemic, Jio became the first mobile service provider to cross the 40-crore customer mark in India. According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), Jio added over 35 lakh subscribers which helped it cross the 40 crore mark. As of September 30, 2020, their total customer base stood at 40.56 crores which 1.8% higher than the previous quarter. Their total wireless traffic also grew by 1.5% and amassed to 1,442 crore GB.

ARPU or Average Revenue per User is an important metric for telecom companies. It helps them to get an idea of how much they are earning from a customer on an average. Jio’s ARPU touched Rs 145 per month this quarter. Last quarter, this metric was at Rs 140 per month. Also, there has been a constant uptrend in Jio’s ARPU from the past four quarters.

Q2FY20Q3FY20Q4FY20Q1FY21Q2FY21
120128130.6140.3145
(Jio’s ARPU in rupees over the quarters)

Without a doubt, Reliance Jio has been a constant driver for RIL as a whole. Thus, it tells how Reliance wants to position itself as a tech player in the future.

Reliance Retail

The retail segment of the company rebounded sharply in the second quarter after a huge slump in Q1 due to lockdown. Revenue from operations rose by 30% QoQ to reach at Rs 36,566 crore. Last quarter was marred by the shutdown of retail shops and fears of people venturing out of their home.

In Q1FY20, Reliance Retail reported an EBITDA of Rs 1,079 crores. This quarter, EBITDA has increased by a whopping 86% to Rs 2,006 crores. When compared to last year, the operating profit of the segment fell by 14% as normalcy is yet to be achieved during these COVID times. With easing restrictions, Reliance Retail was able to operate 85% of its stores. 

A huge jump in the revenue was noticed in the consumer electronics products. Revenue increased by 2X over the last quarter. The apparel segment of Reliance Retail also registered amazing growth. Revenue from Fashion & Lifestyle was almost at 3X over the previous quarter.

“Increased footfall and store openings have contributed to the rebound in retail revenues, with 85% of stores now open,” V. Srikanth, the joint chief financial officer of RIL. 

Apart from the results, RIL has seen some huge investments in their retail arm. Around 8% of the stake has been sold to prominent global investors like Silver Lake, General Atlantic, KKR, Mubadala and a few more. The total investment is amassed to Rs 37,710 crore. At the same time, Reliance Retail has acquired companies like Netmeds, Grab, Nowfloats, C-Square and Shopsense (Fynd).

Petrochemical

The petrochemical segment experienced a resurgence in the second quarter. EBITDA reported a rise of 35% QoQ to Rs 5,964. This is still significantly below than Rs 8,964 crore what the company recorded in the same quarter last year.

The overall increase in household spending helped the company to record a 17.8% growth in the total revenue. Q2’s segment revenue stood at Rs 29,665 crore as compared to Q1’s Rs 25,192 crore.

The sequential rise can be attributed to an increase in demand in the agriculture, auto and FMCG sector. The lockdown forced many labours to lose their jobs. This raised the presence of labours in the market, thus, driving the wages expectations lower. It helped the Indian textile industry to get cheaper labour and cut their cost of production.

To sum up

The company showed a strong rebound in its performance when compared to the previous quarter. Yet, it was below what they produced in the same quarter previous year. But that was expected due to Covid-19, right?

Reliance Jio performed better than what the market estimated. Reliance Retail also contributed to give a positive outlook to the market. Petrochemicals displayed a robust fight to give good numbers. But two of the core segments of the company, refining & marketing and oil & gas (upstream), have struggled for another quarter. Main reason? Lockdowns all over the world due to Covid-19.

On one hand, Covid-19 has raised the demand of digitalization which has aided the Jio segment. On the other side, the core business of Reliance, oil & gas continues to struggle. Reliance owns the largest refinery in the world in Jamnagar. It was their oil & gas business which helped them become what it is today. This quarter, the EBITDA through the oil & gas sector (upstream segment) was reported to be – Rs 194 crore. This is way below than Rs 128 crore EBITDA recorded in the same quarter previous year. This has led to some serious concerns on the oil & gas segment of Reliance.

A few days back, Mukesh Ambani displayed his desire to spearhead India’s fight towards renewable energy. How often have you heard a company dealing with crude oil talking about a move to renewable energy at such a massive scale? Mukesh Ambani insisted that shifting towards renewable energy does not mean leaving the oil & gas business completely. But, is it so easy to make such a large shift? You can read more about this here

Halloween Horror Show! Why Did Reliance Fall?

Halloween is celebrated each year on October 31. Seems like it came on 2nd November for Reliance. You can find how the market performed today here. Reliance’s share price fell by a massive 8.69% to close at Rs 1876. This fall of Rs 178.50 in one day took Reliance on their lowest share price in the past three months. What were the reasons behind such a fall that eroded more than Rs 1 lakh crore of market capitalization?

We can understand three possible reasons behind this. Firstly, negative sentiments due to holding off of Reliance-Future Retail deal. The big bull Amazon has insisted that the deal between the two cannot go ahead as it violates Future’s commitment towards them. Read about this war here. The deal with Future group has huge importance for Reliance to take the next step in the retail segment. If this deal collapses, the speed of growth for Reliance Retail in that sector will be hugely affected.

Secondly, unsatisfactory results. Reliance’s oil business is really struggling due to COVID-19. Demand for oil is struggling to revive. Yesterday, the UK government announced that the second wave of infections has been increasing rapidly. To contain the spread, the UK government has declared another four-week lockdown. Before them, Spain and France have also announced lockdowns in their country. With an increase in cases worldwide and no vaccine as of now, the oil & gas companies may find themselves in a very bad situation once again. 

Thirdly, profit booking kicking in. Reliance has been on a relentless upside rally from the past 7 months. With every major announcement of investment, Reliance has gone up rapidly. But this pattern stopped in the previous month when major investments in the Retail segment failed to boost up the price. Thus, there might be a feeling among the investors that Reliance won’t be going up so easily now.

With a subdued performance in a few segments this quarter, people might have just booked their profits rather than hoping that Mukesh Ambani can turn around again. Also, Rs 2,000, being a round number, was a very solid support for investors. As soon as the stock went below it, many stop losses would have been triggered which created a panic among the shareholders to sell the stock. 

There are also rumours floating around about Ambani’s health. While this has not been verified, stock prices may crash further if this is verified. It will be very interesting to see where Reliance goes from here. Any negative news will be forcing another big fall in its share price. But can Mukesh Ambani do his magic again?

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Daily Market Feed

What Can Affect the Markets Next Week?

Nifty consolidated strongly last week. It traded strongly between 11,800 and 12,000 and as we all know, after any strong consolidation there are chances of a huge move. Let’s see what are the factors that will affect markets next week.

US Stimulus Wait Continues

With the US election just 9 days away, the talks for US Stimulus are still continuing. Global markets, including Indian markets are still waiting patiently for a new stimulus bill and this may move markets next week.

HDFC Bank’s Aditya Puri to resign tomorrow

HDFC Bank’s first employee and CEO Aditya Puri is set to retire tomorrow. Shashidhar Jagadeesan is set to take over as MD & CEO from Tuesday. marketfeed congratulates Aditya Puri for his highly successful career and wish him well for future endeavors.

Flood of Results Coming to D-Street

The most prominent results coming out are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Dr Reddy’s Labs, Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, Titan Company, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, Reliance Industries, BPCL, IndusInd Bank, IOC, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Havells India, Vodafone Idea, InterGlobe Aviation, Angel Broking, Finolex Industries, JM Financial, M&M Financial Services, SBI Life Insurance Company, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Amara Raja Batteries, Ceat, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company, Nippon Life India Asset Management, AU Small Finance Bank, Blue Star, Cummins India, ICICI Securities, Marico, Max India, MCX, MOIL, PNB Housing Finance, RBL Bank, Route Mobile, Thyrocare Technologies, UTI Asset Management Company, JK Paper, Shriram Transport Finance, Tata Chemicals, TVS Motor Company, Welspun Corp, Dixon Technologies, DLF, Jindal Steel & Power, Max Financial Services, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, UPL, DCB Bank and IDFC First Bank.

Yes, I know it is a lot but these stocks will definitely move the market next week, including many Nifty 50 stocks.

Major Results Coming up this Week

Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, ACC, Nestle India, Britannia Industries, Yes Bank, Tech Mahindra, CSB Bank, HDFC Life Insurance Company, L&T Technology Services, Larsen & Toubro Infotech, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Colgate-Palmolive, JK Tyre, UltraTech Cement, Alembic Pharmaceuticals, Biocon, HDFC Asset Management Company, Bharti Infratel, L&T Finance Holdings, SBI Cards and Payment Services, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, IDBI Bank, Persistent Systems and Rossari Biotech are just some of the important results coming up next week.

More than just individual stock movement, you can watch the results to understand how different industries are performing during the pandemic.

ICICI Bank Halting Sri Lanka Operations

ICICI Bank has officially stopped operations in Sri Lanka. This does not look good for the Bank in the long run and marketfeed will definitely write an in-depth article on this topic.

Mumbai Police Shifts official bank to HDFC Bank from Axis Bank

Mumbai Police has shifted the official salary account of its employees to HDFC Bank from Axis Bank. This sudden shift has raised a lot of eyebrows and the conspiracy is that political factors may have played a role in this shift.

Tata Motors Actively Looking for a Partner

Tata Motors’ President of Passenger Vehicles said in an interview with PTI that the company is actively looking for a partner to run its passenger vehicles section. Let us see who shows up for this potentially massive collaboration.

Monthly F&O Expiry – What are the Technicals Saying?

As you know, the F&O expiry is on the last Thursday of every month. So come October 29, we can expect a good volatility in the market. Even with continued call writing near 12,000 level, the highest call open interest is at 12,500. There is a high possibility that Nifty will sustain above 12,000 if aided by heavy-weights Reliance, TCS and banks. With 12,000 range being respected multiple times now, any strong close above this level could take Nifty up to even 12,200.

Watch out for supports at 11,800 and 11,600. Highest put option interest continues to be at 10,500 level surprisingly along with 11,500 level.